MARKET COMMENTARY
Riding high over paucity of the commodity, natural rubber prices continued to move northwards in the Indian market. NMCE rubber futures resumed to rise following an initial profit booking earlier last week, bolstered by limited arrival to the market. In the physical market, RSS4 traded firm around Rs.192 a kg. Intense monsoon rains in the major natural rubber growing areas in Kerala have been disrupting tapping, affecting production. Still, sharp up-moves remained capped on lower prices in the overseas market and unfavourable macro-economic signals.
On Monday, a mixed trend is being witnessed in the international market. While AFET exchange remained closed, TOCOM rubber futures stretched the previous session gains and hovered near the six week highs tracking gains in equities and crude oil. SHFE rubber futures were seen paring initial fall to end almost flat during the first session.
MARKET NEWS
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 0.9 per cent last week to 115255 tonnes.
According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude rubber stockpiles held in Japanese warehouses fell 2.6 per cent to 11248 tonnes as of July 10 from 10 days before.
According to International Rubber Study Group, natural rubber surplus for 2013 is likely to be at 92000-284000 tonnes. World consumption of natural rubber is seen rising by 2.0-5.0 per cent compared to the previous estimate of 2.3-5.9 per cent rise.
Thailand, the world’s biggest rubber producer and exporter, is asking other major producers Malaysia and Indonesia to help it set a benchmark rubber export price, which has fallen by almost a fifth since its peak this year due to weak demand.
The Rubber Board sets target of bringing 4.5 lakh hectares of land under rubber cultivation in the north eastern region.
According to Rubber Board, natural rubber imports into India fell 4.97 percent on year to 19,695 tonnes in June, while production also fell 12.9 percent to 54,000 tonnes in the same period. Consumption declined 2.3 percent to 82,000 tonnes in June.
Car sales in India fell for a record eighth month in row in June with a dip of 9.0 percent as economic slowdown and low consumer sentiments continue to hit demand.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Aug NMCE
While the trend stays positive, requires clearing and sustaining next hurdle of 19500 to continue rising. Else, lower corrective moves to 19200-19050 ranges may be seen.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 19500-19630 | 19500-19050 | 19200-19050 |
| 19800/20000 | 18900/18760 | |
| 20100/20400 | 18500/18400 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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