MARKET COMMENTARY
Continuing its uptrend, natural rubber prices advanced with RSS4 jumping to its strongest level since September 2012. On NMCE, benchmark August rubber futures surged more than one per cent bolstered by acute shortage of supplies. Incessant monsoon rains in the major natural rubber growing areas in Kerala has been disrupting the production process, creating supply disruptions. However, unavailability and spike in natural rubber prices that broadened the gap between natural rubber prices in the Indian and overseas market, is to attract higher imports in coming months. Meanwhile, the Rubber Board has convened a meeting of the stakeholders at Kottayam on Wednesday to review the situation.
On Tuesday, natural rubber prices in the overseas market are seen stretching the previous session gains. TOCOM rubber futures resumed to rise following an initial dip and are hovering near the six week high though strengthening yen weigh on.
MARKET NEWS
The Rubber Board to convene a meeting of all stakeholders at Kottayam on Wednesday to review the current situation in NR market.
The Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) has informed Union commerce minister Anand Sharma that the industry is going for huge imports of natural rubber as the industry’s production schedules have been hit by the limited availability of natural rubber and its spiralling prices in the domestic market.
According to Vietnam’s General Department of Customs, the nation earned $971 million from export of 385,000 tons of rubber in the first half of this year and the figures represent year-on-year decrease of 4.4% in volume and 19.5% in value, the government agency reported.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 0.9 per cent last week to 115255 tonnes.
According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude rubber stockpiles held in Japanese warehouses fell 2.6 per cent to 11248 tonnes as of July 10 from 10 days before.
According to International Rubber Study Group, natural rubber surplus for 2013 is likely to be at 92000-284000 tonnes. World consumption of natural rubber is seen rising by 2.0-5.0 per cent compared to the previous estimate of 2.3-5.9 per cent rise.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Aug NMCE
Lower corrective moves towards 19400/19200 ranges cannot be ruled out before resuming its uptrend and immediate resistance of 19800 if cleared convincingly could call for 20000-20100 or even more. On the flip side, weakness may start to creep in once prices clear the downside support of 19050.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
19800/20000 |
20100-19800-19050 |
19400/19200 |
|
20100/20400 |
|
19050/18900 |
|
20550/20700 |
|
18760/18500 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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