1. Shanghai rubber slightly stronger performance, August 7 back on the rail tank oscillation range 18200-18500 yuan / ton area. But the future there is a big risk of falling.
Recent strength causes. First, since mid-July after the synthetic rubber began to climb up instead. From July 10 SBR minimum 10,350 yuan / ton up to August 6 of 12,900 yuan / ton, or 24.64 percent; butadiene rubber also from July 10 minimum 10,450 yuan / ton up to August the 6th of 12,500 yuan / ton, up to 19.62%. Synthetic rubber prices higher again and again with the recent butadiene closely. Butadiene from mid-July 7000 yuan / ton raised to 8,000 yuan / ton, up to 14.28%. But butadiene plant starts are expected to be raised in the second half, plus imports goods to Hong Kong, an adequate supply. Therefore, synthetic rubber is hard to continue to strengthen.
2. Two policy changes on the uplink Jiaojia play a certain role in promoting. Domestic level for the second half set the tone for the economic work of “maintaining stability” while the stock market also means that the market for upstream policy easing is expected to increase to reproduce. The Fed, the Bank continued to maintain debt purchase $ 85 billion / month unchanged. Role in easing is expected, Shanghai rubber continue rebound situation.
But Shanghai rubber 18,500 yuan / ton line break hard, indicating greater resistance above. Outlook remains lower risk. First, the demand to fall.Starting in July, the heavy truck market into the traditional off-season.Heavy truck full implementation of China IV standards, may be between January to July 2014, but the first half of 2013 with the expected blowout sales resulting from advance procurement standard upgrade inseparable relationship in the future there will be no heavy truck sales highlights.
Tire demand outlook bleak. As rubber prices fell during the first half, tire factory production increased profits, resulting in operating rates steadily increased. But tire inventory accumulation is bound to be a lot of pressure tire prices and production companies operating rate, it is not optimistic about the second half of tire production.
3. Domestic level, while emphasizing the importance of steady growth, but more important task is still adjusting structure, in this tone, easing efforts will inevitably be limited. Aspects of the Fed, QE exit was only a matter of time.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/15970.html
