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MARKET COMMENTARY
Natural rubber prices rallied in the overseas market on Thursday bolstered by an upbeat trade data from China. Imports as well as exports from China rose exceeding forecast, which eased some concerns of a hard landing of the economy. Brushing aside a stronger yen, TOCOM rubber futures shot up, rising nearly five per cent while on SHFE, the benchmark January rubber futures jumped more than four per cent. Comments from Bank of Japan aided the sentiments too. Sharp gains in overseas market are likely to lift prices in the local market also, amidst tight supply. On Wednesday, the market sentiments were mostly on the greener side. NMCE rubber futures inched up nearly one per cent while in the spot market, RSS4 ruled firm around Rs.195 a kg as sharp fall in production since June has been affecting its availability. However, activities were subdued in the physical market as investors awaited for fresh cues for further directional moves.
MARKET NEWS
China imported 150000 tonnes of natural rubber in July compared to 129827 tonnes imported during the same period last year.
ANRPC sees natural rubber imports by China rising 6.6 per cent in 2013 to 3.59 million tonnes.
Indonesian Agricultural Ministry expects 2013 natural rubber output to be at 3.18 million tonnes against the previous estimate of 2.77 million tonnes.
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses fell 9.7 percent to 10,192 metric tons on July 20, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
According to Thai Agricultural Minister, the Government has no plans to sell the rubber stocks for now, which stands at 210000 tonnes that it brought through market intervention scheme.
Malaysian Plantation Industries and Commodities Ministry targets to replant 37,282 hectares of rubber and open 13,000 hectares of new rubber plantations in the country this year.
The Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association (ATMA) has informed Union commerce minister Anand Sharma that the industry is going for huge imports of natural rubber as the industry’s production schedules have been hit by the limited availability of natural rubber and its spiralling prices in the domestic market.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Sep NMCE
While the underlying trend stays positive, successful attempts to clear and sustain above the stiff resistance of 18800 could lift prices further higher towards 19000 or more. Else, expect sideways movement with a tendency to correct lower.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
18600/18800 |
18800-17950 |
18420/18250 |
|
19000/19280 |
|
18100/17950 |
|
19400/19650 |
|
17850/17700 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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