MARKET COMMENTARY
In the week gone by, natural rubber in the Indian market were seen declining following a consolidation. In the physical market, RSS4 retreated from near 10 month high to hit its weakest level since early July. On NMCE too, prices were seen slipping and posted its first weekly decline in three weeks. Despite a steep decline in local natural rubber production and depreciating rupee, markets were under pressure on higher imports and improvement in weather conditions in the major rubber growing areas in Kerala.
As the week’s session commences, natural rubber prices in the overseas market traded mostly steady with a positive bias. TOCOM rubber futures inched higher, extending its previous week gains. Sentiments are largely on the greener side buoyed by a rise in crude oil prices, Thailand’s moves to prop up prices and also on positive cues from China.
MARKET NEWS
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 3.8 per cent to 122645 tonnes last week.
The Thai government planned to spend 30 billion baht to support farmers and rubber processors, Deputy Prime Minister Yukol Limlamthong said Aug. 15.
Rubber inventories in Qingdao, China’s main hub for the commodity fell to 298,300 metric tons from 313,100 tons on July 31 according to the Qingdao International Rubber Exchange.
Natural rubber production in India tumbled 32.4 per cent in July to 46000 tonnes and consumption dropped 3.75 per cent to 82500 tonnes on year on year basis. In the mean time, imports jumped 39.2 percent to 29311 tonnes during the same period.
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses fell to 8470 tonnes as of July 31 to its lowest in about seven months, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
China imported 150000 tonnes of natural rubber in July compared to 129827 tonnes imported during last month.
ANRPC sees natural rubber imports by China rising 6.6 per cent in 2013 to 3.59 million tonnes.
Indonesian Agricultural Ministry expects 2013 natural rubber output to be at 3.18 million tonnes against the previous estimate of 2.77 million tonnes.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Sep NMCE
Inability to clear the stiff resistance of 18800 saw prices retreating. While it seems there is still some more downsides in store, 18250- 18300 ranges cannot be ruled out before resuming downsides.TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
18100/18300 |
18800-18300-17500 |
17800/17700 |
|
18500/18700 |
|
17500/17380 |
|
18800/19000 |
|
17250/17100 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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