Global LNG: Asian spot LNG steady on warmer than average temperature forecasts

SINGAPORE: Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices held steady this week as forecasts of warmer-than-average temperatures in both northeast Asia and northwest Europe capped demand expectations.

The average LNG price for December delivery into north-east Asia was at $13.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), industry sources estimated.

“The weather forecast in Europe points to a rather mild start to November, which is further depressing heating demand,” said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank London.

“Weather forecasts for some parts of northeast Asia also point to temperatures above 10-year averages in the coming two weeks, depressing gas demand in the region as well,” she said, adding that this points to bearish price movements for European gas and Asian LNG prices in the coming weeks.

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While Seoul and Shanghai had been forecast for normal temperatures as the traditional heating season gets underway, the forecasts were revised to above-average, said Argus head of LNG pricing Sam Good, while expectations for below-average temperatures in Beijing and Tokyo were mostly wiped.

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“There was some widening of the European DES-TTF spreads this week, reflecting weak Asian demand for Atlantic cargoes as buying interest has tailed off and high prices limit additional purchases, but they mostly tightened again later in the week as European gas hubs slid,” he said, referring to the price spread between delivered LNG and Dutch TTF hub gas.

In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in December on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.664/mmBtu on Oct. 31, a $0.20/mmBtu discount to the December gas price at the Dutch TTF hub.

Argus assessed the price for December delivery at $12.650/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $12.699/mmBtu.

In LNG freight, the Atlantic rates dropped to record lows on Friday to $18,250/day, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.

The Pacific rates also fell, extending its declines for a twelfth straight week to $30,500/day.