[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: November 15, 2012

MARKET COMMENTARY

As market reopened after ‘Diwali’ holiday, sentiments stayed weak in the Indian natural rubber market. On Wednesday, in a lacklustre trade, RSS 4 in the spot market dipped further to hit a two-and-a half month low. NMCE rubber futures dropped too. However, positive moves seen in the overseas market provided cushion to the falling prices, limiting losses. Also, with the drop in local natural rubber prices, the gap between quotes prevailing in the local and other major international market have narrowed down, especially with Bangkok RSS3.
On Thursday, natural rubber prices are seen extending the previous session gains in the international market. TOCOM rubber futures advanced more than one percent supported by a weaker yen. Concerns over supply owing to heavy rains in southern Thailand too supported the sentiments.

TECHNICAL VIEW

Malaysia’s natural rubber exports fall 3.4 per cent to 60337 tonnes in September on MoM basis.
Vietnam is likely to be among the top three natural rubber exporters in 2012, surpassing Malaysia, according to ANRPC.
According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude Rubber inventories at the Japanese ports dropped to 5833 tonnes by October 31st from 6244 tonnes on October 20, 2012.
Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia began reducing exports of natural rubber on Oct. 1, and plan to cut overseas sales by 180,000 tons this qtr, says Yium Tavarolit, chief secretary of the International Rubber Consortium.
According to Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Malaysia slashed the production forecast for 2012 by 50000 tonnes to 950000 tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s consumption is seen at 3.77 million tonnes from the earlier estimates of 3.69 million tonnes.
According to Indonesia’s Deputy Farm Minister, International Tripartite Rubber Council will meet in mid-December to discuss market development and supply management.

TECHNICAL VIEW

Following the previous session decline towards 17245, for the day, an upside correction towards 17450-17540 may be seen. However, a rise past 17650 with considerable volume is likely to call for 17800- 17900 regions. Inability to clear 17650 convincingly would see continuation of the downtrend and slippage past 17100 may induce further weakness.

Source: Geojit Comtrade

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