Since early October, the in QE3 positive, honored, “financial cliff” concern, under the auspices of the Greek debt crisis and other adverse macroeconomic factors, Hujiao has continued to decline from a high level during the biggest decline in more than 10%. Recently, with the above adverse macroeconomic factors gradually fade, the main producing country after another into the stop cutting period, the rubber is beginning to show signs of stabilization and recovery. Experts believe that the short-term in multiple bullish factors driven, Hujiao trend is expected to remain strong, but still in view of the current the downstream tire business downturn trend, or will, to a certain extent on limit Jiaojia rose.
The main producing areas into tapping the off-season
Of yesterday, Hujiao and rubber again closed up side by side. Shanghai natural rubber rose 1.43%, as of this writing, on plastic rose 1.91%.
The “main factors support Hujiao rose from countries might launch plan of purchasing and storage of natural rubber, as well as the expectations of the market is about to enter the domestic gum, stop cutting period.” Interim Shanghai analyst Chen Ruibi.
Energy and Chemical Securities Futures analyst Xu Yun Jin said, domestic Yunnan, Hainan will have entered into tapping the off-season, the domestic rubber consumption will mainly rely on imports and pre-stock inventory of domestic rubber will enter a period of decline, high inventory problem is expected to ease.
Into the mid to late 11, the state-run rubber plantations in Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation will be the first to usher in the stop cutting period, the supply is expected to ease the current speed of the stock continues to rise gradually weaker. In addition, over time, the state-owned rubber plantations in Hainan State Farms will also be followed and further enhance the supply weakening of momentum, which will undoubtedly play the role of support Jiaojia from the supply side.
The import side, the three major producing countries, production is still at a relatively high period, but looking back at the data in previous years, the domestic rubber imports remained at a relatively stable level, there was no significant fluctuations, and the three major producing countries of the pre-Tropsch price received storage policy is also a large extent, ease the the peripheral supply pressure.
In addition, the recent market rumors of Chinese policy for purchasing and stockpiling the formation of rubber bullish support. The Boseong futures analyst, said Chen Dong, recent the domestic Shouchu natural rubber rumors intensified. Comprehensive purchasing and storage of wind appeared to have formed in accordance with the current situation, the market for purchasing and storage of natural rubber is expected in the growing, especially upstream production and processing enterprises they urge the government introduced the bailout measures, its not even rule would go to industry complaints from associations and government departments, accelerate Shouchu expected to implement.
Demand is not difficult to sustain support Jiaojia
Demand from the downstream point of view, demand is still a key factor restricting Jiaojia rose.
Reporter learned that the current tire enterprises operating rate compared to September has dropped slightly, overall remained at about 7 percent. Although the industry’s raw material inventory is still low, but the finished tire inventories increased. And then take into account near the end of the year, the logistics and transport industry is expected to enter the seasonal off-season, before the outbreak of the the collective stocking market before the Spring Festival, the short-term is expected to remain weak.
Chen Ruibi think before domestic purchasing and storage plan formal action, the following factors will continue to put pressure on Hujiao: First, the current for seasonal tire industry sales off-season, with the rising inventory of finished tire, so the industry of natural rubber the demand for short-term material remained weak. Second, the Free Trade Zone of high inventory is still tremendous pressure on natural rubber market in China.Furthermore, in the context of natural rubber spot prices with the rise of the weak, the price difference expanded spot hedging disk easily induce sustained admission. Finally, synthetic Jiaojia with the huge price difference of the price of natural rubber will not only increase the role of synthetic rubber, natural rubber alternative will also be a drag on the overall popularity of the rubber market. Overall, the current Hujiao still do not have the sharp rise in the grounds in the the too deep short-term technical correction pre decrease, probably will be dropped again.
Chen Dong also believes that the short-term in multiple bullish factors driven, Hujiao trend is expected to remain strong, but still in view of the current the downstream tire business downturn trend, or will, to a certain extent on limit Jiaojia or.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/11362.html
