MARKET COMMENTARY
Natural rubber prices remained under the strangle hold of bears. On Thursday, quotes for RSS4 in the physical market fell further, hitting its weakest level since early- May. Prices have so far retreated around 16 per cent since it peaked to a ten month high in July this year on steep fall in local natural rubber production. Even as production process is yet to gather pace, poor off-take and high reliance on imports are pressurizing prices to move south. In the mean time, on NMCE, the grade took a breather following the recent plunge and ended rather flat.
As the week’s session culminates, natural rubber resumed to decline in the overseas market. TOCOM rubber futures dropped more than one per cent to hit an eight week low and is poised to post biggest weekly losses in four month. AFET rubber futures followed the suit too.
MARKET NEWS
According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses fell 4.3 percent to 4,507 metric tons on Sept. 30.
According to the chairman of the Rubber Association of Indonesia, the nation’s natural rubber production for 2013 is seen at 3.2 million tonnes from 3.04 million tonnes produced last year.
8500 rubber dealers across Kerala and Tamil Nadu had downed the shutters in protest against falling natural rubber prices and poor off-take on Monday.
Rubber exports from Thailand rose 1.6 per cent to 1.98 million tonnes during January-August period.
The network of farmers from the Thailand’s 16 rubber-planting southern provinces has submitted five demands to the government while threatening to escalate their protests if the demands are not met within 7 days. The demands came despite the fact that the provincial authorities had provided around 800 rubber farmers with the first batch of subsidy on Tuesday.
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, the nation shipped 107000 tonnes of rubber in August and is expected to rise 5.5 per cent in September.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Nov NMCE
Despite broad weakness being witnessed, the chances of a pullback to 16800/17000 levels still remains open. Yet, it is mandatory to clear 17500 upside for lessening the present weakness. Else it may succumb to higher level selling and slippage past 16300-16250 may see prices inching further lower.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16600/16800 |
17500-17000-16250 |
16300-16250 |
|
16970/17050 |
|
16100-16040 |
|
17300/17500 |
|
15800-15700 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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