MARKET COMMENTARY
Lack of buying interest dragged down RSS4 in the local market on Thursday. The grade revisited its five month low hit last week in the physical market on subdued demand. In addition, steep declines witnessed on TOCOM and SHFE exchange weighed on the sentiments too. On NMCE, the most active November rubber futures culminated the session 2.52 per cent down. The broad sentiments continue to be on the bearish side despite lower production and scanty arrivals.
A rebound is being witnessed in natural rubber prices in the overseas market on Friday. TOCOM rubber futures rose more than two per cent while SHFE and AFET rubber futures were up by around 1.5 per cent. Signs that the world’s largest economy, US may avoid a default lifted the overall all market sentiments.
MARKET NEWS
According to Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, the number of para-rubber farmers applying for the Government’s compensation program has surpassed the target figure by 100,000.
According to ANRPC, natural rubber output among its member countries is likely to rise 3.2 per cent in next year to 10.968 million tonnes.
Natural rubber imports by India in September almost tripled to 45581 tonnes on YoY basis as tyre makers increased purchases from overseas market.
Kerala Finance Minister urged the central government to impose a complete ban on natural rubber imports and raise import duty.
Monsoon rains that drenched rubber plantations across India and Malaysia are diminishing a glut of supply for the first time in three years, just as record global car sales are boosting demand for tires.
According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses fell 4.3 percent to 4,507 metric tons on Sept. 30.
According to the chairman of the Rubber Association of Indonesia, the nation’s natural rubber production for 2013 is seen at 3.2 million tonnes from 3.04 million tonnes produced last year.
Rubber exports from Thailand rose 1.6 per cent to 1.98 million tonnes during January-August period.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Nov NMCE
Even as the trend stays on the weaker side, pullbacks to 16840/16960 cannot be ruled out. However, such moves stretching beyond 17000 ranges may have the potential to lift prices towards 17150/17300. A direct fall below 16400 will attract more bears.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
16840/16950 |
17300-17000-16400 |
16550/16450 |
|
17150/17300 |
|
16380/16250 |
|
17500/17700 |
|
16060/15970 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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