A time when mid-October, Shanghai rubber already hovering between 20000-21300 points more than a half, both long and short options in this range carefully cut and thrust, but dare not deviate. We have been in last month’s monthly report for September Jiaojia set the tone for the trend is “smoke and mirrors” is due to the complex international supply and demand side macro background and intense game, the trend will Shanghai rubber confusing, direction of the enemy. In early September, on the red rubber prices had 21300 points, but the technical indicators, MACD shows a clear departure from the top, then we expect rubber prices should be a wave of correction, but in that time, the market has lost no time in burst state purchasing and storage of natural rubber to be news, and much-anticipated U.S. QE but did not exit as the market expected, but also ease the upward pressure on commodity prices, so the last wave callback subsequently disappeared.
National Day holiday, rubber prices remained tepid interval running, then the moment whether subtle fundamentals has been brewing in turn can promote Jiaojia broken bits select the direction of momentum it? From natural rubber imports, the first half of natural rubber imports grew more than 30%, but domestic demand and might not have much growth, and thus can be said that in the first half of the imports have been overdrawn in the second half of the imports, while natural rubber imports in recent months of negative growth year on year, also confirmed this point, in large bonded inventory pressure eased. As of October 15, Qingdao Free Trade Zone by the end of September compared to the total inventory of rubber dropped by nearly 12,000 to 259,600 tons, inventory qoq maintained at three consecutive tons.Of course, this stocking factory with eleven holidays are not unrelated. At present, the overall inventory release a lot, but considering the gradual increase of foreign supply, investors fear the pressure is still larger warehouse.
From the downstream industry chain, the recent steel tire tire enterprises in Shandong area most steady operating rate, some manufacturers started the trend showed a slight decline from the previous month; while semi-steel tire operating rate remained high of more than 80%, some companies started showing a slight rise. Cautiously bullish market outlook, the latter will consume inventory based. Dealers around the stockpile currently relatively positive, sporadic shipments based.
September’s heavy truck market is not short off-season only, but also brilliant record. Heavy truck market in September of about 62,000 types of vehicles sold, up sharply increased by 44.8%, growth of 20.3%. Heavy truck market in September and even rapid growth in the third quarter, partly due to macroeconomic modest recovery, but it is another important driver of the country four new regulations. Since the state for the implementation of the country four times so far there is no clear statement, so municipalities implemented within four heavy vehicle emissions regulations in the country more and more local governments, this area has led to the country triple card users buy a new car, on the other hand also led distributors and heavy truck manufacturer in advance billing behavior, and thus to a certain extent, an increase in recent months, the number of wholesale sales of heavy trucks. But it is precisely because “early overdraft” factors exist, making the heavy truck market in the fourth quarter the trend is still unknown.
Contrast 9,10 hot news influencing factors, in September when the Thai rubber farmers had demonstrations forced the government to intervene; ultimately the Thai government promises will be fixed in the form of subsidies for rubber farmers income increased to 90 baht per kilogram, when price is about 80 baht. But this also means that the Thai government will not directly intervene in rubber market, but let Jiaojia under the guidance of the laws of the market self-regulation. Another heavy influence of these factors is the State Reserve closing gum, gum September closing rumors hubbub, provided strong support for the rubber prices, but until now still not below; Nevertheless, this is still no news of a time bomb. Macro side, the natural hot September QE exit timetable for the United States, and then to retreat QE did not retire, reducing a downward pressure Jiaojia factors; while in October, the market is focused on the U.S. debt ceiling impasse in the negotiations.
For the afternoon, we believe that the short term trend of the main factors that lead Jiaojia not fundamentals, investors without news of the impact is expected in the short-term ups and downs within the space is not too large; operation, the need to grasp the impact of the incident (such as the national reserve, the U.S. debt ceiling, etc.) on the short-term fluctuations Jiaojia oriented City in shock accumulation band gain.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/17146.html
