MARKET COMMENTARY
- Lacklusture demand coupled with fears over further fall in natural rubber prices kept the overall market sentiments in doldrums. On Monday, RSS4 in the local market slipped further to make a fresh three and a half year low. Stretching losses, NMCE rubber futures were too bound south, shedding nearly one per cent. However, narrowing gap between the prices prevailing in the overseas and domestic natural rubber market and intermittent but heavy rains in the major natural rubber growing areas in Kerala may probably lend support to the falling prices.
- TOCOM rubber futures resumed to decline on Tuesday, reversing previous day’s gains tracking weakness in equities and after reports that the global natural rubber market surplus may widen on rise in production. Weak trend being witnessed in SHFE rubber futures weighed on the sentiments too.
MARKET NEWS
- According to a report from Economic Intelligence Unit, global natural rubber surplus may reach 134,000 metric tons this year, 200,000 tons next year and 257,000 tons in 2015.
- TOCOM April contract expired with 286 lots being delivered compared to 219 lots delivered in the previous month.
- Kerala asks the Centre to stay the decision to allow import of natural rubber without enhancing the excise duty, saying the move has led to a sharp drop in prices and farmers in the key producing state worried.
- Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 5.1 per cent to 172022 tonnes last week.
- Malaysia’s production of natural rubber in September declined 1.3 per cent to 71,921 tonnes year-on-year, but exports increased 32.3% to 79,808 tonnes compared to September of 2012 according to its the Department of Statistics.
- According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, natural-rubber production may rise 3.6 percent to 11 million tons this year from 2012.
- SIAM sees car sales in India falling by one to four per cent in the current financial year. October car sales drop 3.9 per cent on year on year basis.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Dec NMCE
Prices are currently approaching towards a falling trend line support near 15100 ranges, which if held could call for a pullback towards 15400 initially followed by 15550 or more. However, breaching and sustaining of the resistance at 15750 would be a crucial to augment further short covering moves. Sustained trades below 15100 ranges may see prices dwindling further.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
15400/15550 |
15750-15550-15100 |
15150/14900 |
|
15650/15750 |
|
14770/14650 |
|
15950/16100 |
|
14500-14400 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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