MARKET COMMENTARY
Bears continue to dominate domestic natural rubber market and on Tuesday, RSS4 in the physical market waned to hit its weakest level since March 2010. NMCE rubber futures too continued to glide down. The commodity remained under intense selling pressure on poor off-take. Anticipation of more downfalls in prices too pushed growers and dealers to stay on the selling side.
A mixed trend is being witnessed in the overseas market on Wednesday. While SHFE rubber futures took a breather following the recent declines, TOCOM and AFET rubber futures continued to edge lower. The benchmark May rubber futures on TOCOM lost about one per cent tracking weakness in equities and on weak economic indicators from the US.
MARKET NEWS
According to a report from Economic Intelligence Unit, global natural rubber surplus may reach 134,000 metric tons this year, 200,000 tons next year and 257,000 tons in 2015.
TOCOM April contract expired with 286 lots being delivered compared to 219 lots delivered in the previous month.
Kerala asks the Centre to stay the decision to allow import of natural rubber without enhancing the excise duty, saying the move has led to a sharp drop in prices and farmers in the key producing state worried.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 5.1 per cent to 172022 tonnes last week.
Malaysia’s production of natural rubber in September declined 1.3 per cent to 71,921 tonnes year-on-year, but exports increased 32.3% to 79,808 tonnes compared to September of 2012 according to its the Department of Statistics.
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, natural-rubber production may rise 3.6 percent to 11 million tons this year from 2012.
SIAM sees car sales in India falling by one to four per cent in the current financial year. October car sales drop 3.9 per cent on year on year basis.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Dec NMCE
Prices are currently approaching towards a falling trend line support near 15100 ranges, which if held could call for a Despite a very brief penetration of 15100 ranges downside, it seems as if prices have held the lower trend line support, which should then ideally call for a mild pullback to 15300-15400 ranges initially followed by 15550. However, it is necessary to break and sustain above 15750 to continue the upside momentum. Slippage past 15100 ranges with considerable volume may see further declines.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
15300-15400 |
15750-15550-15100 |
15100-15060 |
|
15550/15650 |
|
14900/14770 |
|
15750/15950 |
|
14650/14500 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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