MARKET COMMENTARY
RSS4 in the Indian market bounced off from more than a three and a half year low on Thursday. RSS4 in the physical market inched up to Rs.152 a kg after hitting its weakest level since March 2010 the other day on short covering. The recent steep fall as well as worries over fall in production despite it being the peak production phase may have probably attracted some buying in the counter too. NMCE rubber futures too extended gains, rising nearly one per cent.
As the week’s session culminated, natural rubber prices in the international market are seen extending gains. TOCOM rubber futures jumped to hit a four week high, rising more than two per cent bolstered by a weaker yen, which slipped to its lowest level since late-May.
MARKET NEWS
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 15.3 percent to 6,569 metric tons on Nov. 10, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
According to a report from Economic Intelligence Unit, global natural rubber surplus may reach 134,000 metric tons this year, 200,000 tons next year and 257,000 tons in 2015.
TOCOM April contract expired with 286 lots being delivered compared to 219 lots delivered in the previous month.
Kerala asks the Centre to stay the decision to allow import of natural rubber without enhancing the excise duty, saying the move has led to a sharp drop in prices and farmers in the key producing state worried.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 5.1 per cent to 172022 tonnes last week.
Malaysia’s production of natural rubber in September declined 1.3 per cent to 71,921 tonnes year-on-year, but exports increased 32.3% to 79,808 tonnes compared to September of 2012 according to its the Department of Statistics.
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, natural-rubber production may rise 3.6 percent to 11 million tons this year from 2012.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Jan NMCE
The current chart formation suggests there is some more room for upside, possibly to 15800-15900, before providing any cues on further directional moves. Successful attempts to sustain above 15950 with sturdy volume may see the buying momentum continuing. Or, corrective dips to 15500-15450 ranges may be seen, below which it could again visit the recent lows or more.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
15800/15900 |
15950-15750-15200 |
15500-15450 |
|
16050/16150 |
|
15350/15200 |
|
16250/16380 |
|
15100-15000 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
Download this report (full content – PDF file) bellow:
