MARKET COMMENTARY
Following the plunge towards more than three and a half year low last week, RSS4 in the local market was on a recovery path towards the close of the week. Despite weak demand and higher imports, short covering from the lower levels along with worries over falling in local production owing to rains and narrowing gap between natural rubber prices in the Indian and international market probably lifted prices from the lows. A sharp rebound in overseas natural rubber market towards the close of the week may have supported the sentiments too. In the international market, meantime, on Monday natural rubber futures were seen stretching the previous week’s gains. TOCOM rubber futures rose about 1.5 per cent bolstered by an upbeat Chinese PMI data amidst escalating political tensions in Thailand, largest producer of natural rubber, which ignited worries over supply disruptions.
MARKET NEWS
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE fell 12.2 per cent to 150978 tonnes last week.
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 15.3 percent to 6,569 metric tons on Nov. 10, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
According to a report from Economic Intelligence Unit, global natural rubber surplus may reach 134,000 metric tons this year, 200,000 tons next year and 257,000 tons in 2015.
TOCOM April contract expired with 286 lots being delivered compared to 219 lots delivered in the previous month.
Kerala asks the Centre to stay the decision to allow import of natural rubber without enhancing the excise duty, saying the move has led to a sharp drop in prices and farmers in the key producing state worried.
Malaysia’s production of natural rubber in September declined 1.3 per cent to 71,921 tonnes year-on-year, but exports increased 32.3% to 79,808 tonnes compared to September of 2012 according to its the Department of Statistics.
According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, natural-rubber production may rise 3.6 percent to 11 million tons this year from 2012.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Jan NMCE
Inability to clear the resistance of 15950 saw prices correcting lower towards 15700 ranges. Now, if it manages to hold 15600-15500 ranges downside, anticipate a bounce back. However, requires to break and sustain over 15950 to continue the upside momentum.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
15760/15900 |
15950-15500-15200 |
15620/15500 |
|
16050/16150 |
|
15400-15350 |
|
16250/16380 |
|
15200/15100 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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