[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: November 21, 2012

MARKET COMMENTARY

NMCE rubber futures eased on Tuesday after posting gains of more than two per cent the previous day while RSS4 in the spot market ruled mostly steady near Rs.171 a kg. Despite advances in the international market, gains in the Indian markets remained capped as tapping picked-up in the major rubber growing areas in Kerala amidst increasing imports. However, supply is slightly on the back foot which is likely to support prices. According to sources, anticipation of improvement in prices is inducing farmers to hold back the produce there by limiting availability.
Natural rubber prices threw mixed signals in the major international market on Wednesday. The benchmark April rubber futures in TOCOM is swinging between positive and negative territory while SHFE and AFET rubber futures declined weighed down by worries over demand.

TECHNICAL VIEW

Shanghai Securities News citing the country’s rubber industry group says large Chinese tire companies plan to establish a fund to strengthen pricing on natural rubber.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 3.5 per cent to 66675 tonnes last week.
As a part of efforts to support prices and farmers, China has started stockpiling natural rubber and will buy between 150000- 200000 tonnes from the domestic market for the state reserves.
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia will be meeting on 11th and 12th December in Phuket to seek ways to stabilise rubber prices.
Malaysia’s natural rubber exports fall 3.4 per cent to 60337 tonnes in September on MoM basis.
Vietnam is likely to be among the top three natural rubber exporters in 2012, surpassing Malaysia, according to ANRPC.
According to Rubber Trade Association of Japan, crude Rubber inventories at the Japanese ports dropped to 5833 tonnes by October 31st from 6244 tonnes on October 20, 2012.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Dec NMCE

As long as 17650 caps upside, choppy trades with negative bias may be witnessed inside 17100-17650 ranges. Slippage past 17100 will probably see prices revisiting the recent lows or more. A direct rise above 17650 may lessen the weakness and could lift prices towards 17800-17960 levels initially.

Source: Geojit Comtrade

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