Rubber main contract 1405 December 12 after a Changyang, out of 7 Lianyin downtrend, indicating that the recent market bearish view of the rubber more consistent. As of Monday, the rubber main 1405 contract closed at 18,520 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1,275 yuan / ton, positions and trading volume moderate amplification, active trading market.
Analysis, first of all, the rubber stocks rebounded. Late November, mid-Qingdao Bonded rubber stocks soared more than 11,800 to 276,300 tons. In addition to synthetic stocks continue to decline, the natural rubber, adhesive inventory to maintain growth momentum. Among them, the natural rubber increased by 8,000 tons, 5,000 tons of adhesive increases. The end of October, the inventory had reached 254,000 tons, which indicates the level of domestic stocks experienced a decline in the six months after the start rebounded.
The amount of the domestic car market or price drop. November car sales were completed 2,134,300 and 2,043,900, an increase of 11.39% over the previous month and 5.75%, respectively, an increase of 21.17% and 14.12% respectively over the previous year. 1 to November car sales were completed 19,989,300 and 19,860,000, an increase of 14.34% and 13.53% respectively. By monitoring 36 cities nationwide, the national car market in November, slightly lower price trend continues, domestic cars and imported cars prices have declined.
Thailand in January next year to restore rubber export tax.
Thai rubber replanting aid fund office on December 13, said a four-month rubber export tax policy is about to expire, will begin to restore the rubber export tax levied in January next year. The Office of the Acting Director said, had to stop taxing and rubber prices to boost sales. Recovery rubber export tax could cause the costs to exporters rubber farmers, which to some extent reduce domestic rubber prices.
Seasonal supply reduction. December, domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan basically ended up tapping work this year. Latex yield in Hainan Province will gradually decrease. Therefore, domestic production will be full latex seasonal decline. From past experience, every after December, domestic natural rubber supply situation will be a certain tension. In the past five years, four years in December Shabghai rubber prices are in rally among the seasonal price trend is very obvious.
Looking ahead, the recent rebound in the domestic stock levels, Thailand announced the resumption of export taxes, the Fed reduced QE, serious environmental pollution around the resonance bad news is rubber all the way down, the current decline in the amount of energy from the point of view of short-term sentiment has not been fully released. But considering the interim, the automotive industry is still in a healthy industry cycle, the downstream demand will be strong support for Jiaojia the medium-term trend, seasonal supply will decrease sharply in the short-term reasons to become multi counterattack . So the whole wide rubber will remain rangebound in the longer period of time (17500-21800). Recommend close attention to the recent 1405 contract 17500-17800 rubber main support area in the short term if effective firm, will expand the round rebounded slightly.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/18367.html
