“Since the beginning of this year, the SBR market shock down in November fell to lows for the year. November 20 Japan-China Petrochemical price cut from 200 to 500 yuan (t price, the same below), Qilu Song balsam 1502 is priced at 16,700 yuan, Yang Jin offer for 14,800 yuan in 1712, compared with the price of 30,000 yuan for the same period of last year, a drop of more than million. oversupply and other negative factors, the market outlook, there is room for further decline. “oil Northeast sales Zhu Director for styrene-butadiene rubber market to make the above judgment.
He says, has been the recognition of Jilin Province Shuntong tire company Wang: “downstream tire industry demand downturn, combined sales of the combined effects of negative factors such as the off-season, funds tight supply and demand in an unbalanced state, has maintained a low level of demand for raw materials styrene butadiene rubber market is difficult to boost. “
The tire as the SBR maximum downstream users, has been before loading line, the economic downturn coupled with high raw material prices and other factors, so that enterprises margins continue to be squeezed. Only heavy truck tires (all steel), for example, the decline in sales led to factories operating at only 50%. Especially launched a special protective case in recent years because of the United States to impose punitive tariffs of up to 55% of Chinese exports to the U.S. passenger car and light truck tires, tire companies in China exported to the United States basically stagnant.
Shandong Province, more than 40% of the total national output, the amount of exports tires this year, a significant decline in the producing areas of the tire business start low, resulting in Qingdao Free Trade Zone Spot rubber this year, the stock hit a record high, reaching more than 250,000 tons, the formation of pressure for the rubber market Wang analysis.
Special protective case expire by the end of September, for domestic tire export enterprises formed good remains to be seen, the EU tire labeling law comes into effect from November 1, and the haze of the domestic tire industry. It is reported that half of the tire can not reach the quality standard of the labeling law. Although the labeling law countries are in the minority, once full implementation in the world, will be the impact of the 56% of the passenger car tire exports, 23% of truck tire exports, which accounted for 15% of the total output value of the domestic tire for the domestic tire industry will be a very serious impact. The enterprise inevitably will take self-protection measures, such as reduced operating rates, slowing the rubber procurement efforts to ease the financial pressure to accelerate sales.
In addition, the automotive industry downturn affected the demand of the tire. According to statistics, 1 to 10 heavy truck market cumulative sales of about 534,900, down 30.5% from 769,300 in the same period last year, the end of the heavy truck industry also no hope of recovery.
A series of changes, from the downstream industry chain will have a negative impact on styrene butadiene rubber market, a pullback also expected.
“Raw materials butadiene, styrene market plunge, to form a linkage momentum for styrene butadiene rubber market will also weaken SBR warming of the kinetic energy.” The Commissioner said Zhu.
November, manufacturers of butadiene supply prices dropped substantially, the market stalled loose negotiate prices continue to fall.The macro side, the U.S. financial cliff and the European debt crisis continue to haunt investors continued external environment bad. Futures delivery of the styrene market in the early end of the market is declining rapidly lost replenishment needs support fell to 12,200 yuan, while international oil prices shocks, the lack of clear guidelines, a lukewarm market sentiment. As prices fall, gradually shrinking demand, coupled with the end of the recovery of its investment, employment and other issues will also be restricting downstream factory operating conditions, expected market outlook, prices will continue to fall.
“In the current raw material prices, the SBR profit margins at 500 yuan, there is room for further reduction.” Director Zhu said.
Styrene butadiene rubber outer disk market has also ushered in a wave of price decline in the market. To hold the European styrene butadiene rubber supply the suppliers and traders, trying to adopt a competitive price, excess inventory sold to Southeast Asia. Therefore, the low-cost the European cargo suppress the domestic market. The drop in prices of raw materials butadiene styrene butadiene rubber prices also dragged. Feedstock butadiene has fallen by about $ 200 since the beginning of October. The seller actively shipping to avoid market risk, uncertain market prospects continue to dampen buying sentiment, the downstream tire manufacturer to take a cautious wait-and-see attitude.
The sufficient supply side of the market, the current market downturn. The pre Parking Lan, Shen Hua, Zhejiang morning, Miss Port styrene butadiene rubber device to restart production, to supplement the supply of new stock, sales companies and stocks are at a high social even small benzene rubber prices have fallen to relatively low, but stimulating effect on the downstream plant, a large number of purchase behavior is difficult. “Director Zhu is expected.
Currently, styrene-butadiene rubber market bearish gathered within the demand downturn procurement light outside the entry into force of the labeling law in exports, market heavily to the good pressure, the market outlook will continue to shock downstream.
Source: CRIA
