As the demand for natural rubber has more than 60% concentrated in the tires, so the discussion will inevitably demand for rubber tires inseparable explore the development of the industry. There are two aspects tire needs: one is supporting demand, on the other hand is the replacement demand. From the perspective of matching demand, the number of automobile production plays a decisive role; from replacement demand point of view, we mainly focus on the heavy truck, heavy truck tires replaced because of the higher frequencies. The card can be classified as heavy engineering and logistics heavy truck heavy truck, heavy truck class which works mainly with fixed asset investment, especially investment in infrastructure and real estate investments have a close relationship; while logistics major categories of heavy trucks and cargo are closely related. Therefore, we are conducting on the logic needs to invest in infrastructure, real estate investment and freight.
Incremental natural rubber production mainly in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and several countries. Especially in Vietnam, as a rising star, and gradually increase its production, has become the fourth output power.Malaysia’s own production continues to decline, but it is a lot of raw materials imported from neighboring countries, the supply of finished products also more prominent.
Effects of synthetic rubber for natural rubber, synthetic rubber prices usually occur when natural rubber prices approaching. It has a certain relationship with the market psychology. In general, the market price is higher than generally believed synthetic rubber prices. (Rubber planting due to the constraints, there is a certain annual production cap, the elasticity of supply is weak, but the use of synthetic materials are petrochemical products, contrast-induced changes in the supply price changes more easily) lead to two when synthetic rubber prices up who spreads narrowed, even when the bottom fell 0, synthetic rubber, natural rubber prices upward price breakthrough, when there may be supported natural rubber and upward.
The impact of macroeconomic policies on commodity prices, there are two lines. A line is a fiscal policy to stimulate investment growth under the monetary stimulus is another line under monetary policy stimulus. We believe that in June the money shortage events can explain that this government will not consider the use of monetary policy efforts to stimulate economic growth. Our money supply growth and the growth of new loans which also can be found after that.
U.S. macro main two problems: one is the debt ceiling, and the other is the Fed’s exit QE. Determine the future of the debt ceiling of the U.S. fiscal spending will be constrained. And with the decline in the U.S. unemployment rate, the Fed will eventually have to exit the QE problems on the agenda, so we think on the whole year, the macroeconomic policy of the United States lack the opportunity to push up commodity prices.
For the full year, the supply pressure is still quite a lot. Sharp rebound in prices, while the potential of rubber production is bound to be released. This will limit the rubber prices to rise. In addition, macro support for the price also will be limited. We believe that the high rubber prices throughout the year may be difficult to go beyond 25,000 yuan / ton.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/18479.html
