MARKET COMMENTARY
Natural rubber prices in the Indian market inched up on Monday lifted by the State government’s market intervention scheme as well as tracking gains in the overseas market. In the physical market, RSS4 rose to Rs.146 a kg as growers held back the stocks in anticipation of further rise in prices. On NMCE too, the grade inched up, extending the previous week’s gains. However, an indecisiveness and uncertainty over the feasibility of the government’s proposed scheme prevailed, which probably restricted gains following an initial advance. In the meantime, on Tuesday, natural rubber prices in the overseas market are held in tight ranges after the strong bounce back in the previous session. However, holiday in the trend setting TOCOM exchange on account of National Foundation Day probably kept activities on the lower side. SHFE rubber futures inched up while on AFET the commodity was hardly traded.
MARKET NEWS
The International Rubber Consortium that met on February 8th to review the current market situation assessed that the current stock levels in the ITRC is lower than being reported in media and that wintering in coming months is likely to lower the stocks further. It acknowledged that the current prices are unreasonably low and urged the respective Trade Associations in ITRC countries not to offer natural rubber at such low prices.
Kerala State government has decided to procure rubber directly from rubber growers by paying Rs.2 over and above the rate daily market rate fixed by the Rubber Board.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE remained unchanged at 207658 tonnes last week.
Kerala Finance Minister, K M Mani, assured that a system will be put in place to ensure legitimate price for rubber and added that the legitimate price will be decided after taking the average of rubber price in the previous years.
Crude rubber inventories at Japanese ports rose 12 percent from 11 days earlier to a near seven-year high of 17,387 tonnes as of Jan. 31, data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan showed.
Natural-rubber surplus may narrow to 241,000 tons from 384,000 tons last year if global economic growth in line with outlook from IMF, according to data from International Rubber Study Group.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Mar NMCE
Despite breaching the stiff resistance at 15100 subsequent up moves as anticipated failed to materialise. For the day, corrective dips to 14900-14750 or even more to 14600 may be seen before resuming to rise. However, unanticipated fall below 14400 may again induce strong weakness.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
15180-15250 |
15250-14400 |
14900/14750 |
|
15400/15550 |
|
14600/14400 |
|
15750-15850 |
|
14200/14150 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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