March will usher in China’s Yunnan region tapping season. From this year’s weather conditions, the Yunnan region during rubber stop cutting, drought conditions have significantly improved over last year, which is more favorable for the production of new plastic.
The new cut open plastic will undoubtedly further increase the domestic supply of natural rubber, which in the recent Futures disk will also be reflected.
Domestic production is mainly full latex adhesive based, while Shanghai rubber futures full latex is also the subject of a major deliverable. But full latex prices higher, relative to the practical application of imported rubber, the range is narrow. Thus easier to form full latex futures delivery has become the stock futures.
From the point of view of the natural rubber stock, the past year has been in a rising trend unilateral. As of February 21, the week, the period of the rubber stock was 20.7 million tons, the highest level in five years.And during domestic natural rubber stop tapping, the period inventory is still no significant decline. Expected in mid-March after the new domestic rubber market, there may be more domestic rubber registered as warehouse receipts, threw the futures market, which will directly suppress the formation HuJiao futures.
In the short term, latex spot price fell sharply for two days, full latex offer one-day decline in the Shanghai area of 700 yuan / ton, indicating that the new glue listed under pressure, some traders began to sell inventory.
In summary, the current production cost of natural rubber between 13000-15000 yuan / ton, from this calculation, the current futures price is not far from the bottom.
But the bottom HuJiao acceleration to market bulls still brings a greater risk, even HuJiao rebound, the intensity will be very limited.Operation, HuJiao need to be careful to do more, should not blind hunters, waiting for the fundamentals improved.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/19412.html
