Hongyuan Futures Research Centre Energy and Chemical Research Leader Zhan Jianping recently said in an interview with reporters, natural rubber overcapacity situation is still ongoing for several years, is the key to the future of destocking rubber industry. From a macro perspective, China promulgated the same as in 2008, “four trillion” The possibility of a smaller stimulus plan, the needs of local infrastructure construction, real estate construction and other areas temporarily difficult to rebound sharply.
Reporter: Do you expect this year’s rubber prices How? Internal and external factors affecting the price of rubber and what?
Zhan Jianping: Rubber prices are still expected to remain volatile this year downward trend. After the year 2008, the global surge in rubber planting area, to the rapid expansion of rubber production, from 2013 to 2015 is to focus on the opening cut of the period, resulting in rubber prices continued to fall. On the one hand the situation of overcapacity is not a day or two to change, on the other hand the downstream demand is also declining.
The current global demand for rubber, China accounted for 30 percent more than the demand, is one of the world’s major rubber demand for the country. The maximum demand of rubber from car tires, the news from China Automobile Dealers Association, car dealer inventory warning index in January was 50.5 percent, up 10.5 percentage points in the cordon level. The main volume of natural rubber or heavy-duty truck tires, passenger demand is not the determining factor of rubber prices. The heavy truck mainly for infrastructure, so the greater the amount of local infrastructure, the demand for tires are also more.
Currently local infrastructure and real estate investment growth continued to decline, if the next local government infrastructure construction began on a small stimulus, it may have a certain degree of rubber prices rebound, but the rebound height is also more limited. Next, rubber prices are expected to continue hovering at the bottom, the whole industry is still relatively large pressure on the stock.
Reporter: rubber industry destocking become the key to the inventory cycle is expected to go long?
Zhan Jianping: destocking than one or two years to complete things, and not just rubber stocks in China, Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, the main origin of some stocks are high. Considering the 2005-2008 Southeast Asian countries began to produce rubber tree gum, the agencies have predicted 2014 will increase production of rubber. In the rubber already oversupply situation, in 2014 the speed increase faster than consumption, excess supply situation will continue to worsen or destocking will become more difficult.
Of course, we can hardly needs this one hundred percent predicted that if the government introduced economic stimulus plan, the de-stocking is likely to accelerate. But I expect that in the future the same as in 2008, “four trillion” stimulus plan less likely.
Reporter: According to your point of view, the spot rubber prices in the future is not optimistic. On Friday, HuJiao opened down, the main 1405 contract closed 14,985 yuan / ton, down 85 yuan / ton. For the next HuJiao fundamentals how do you see?
Zhan Jianping: on fundamentals, natural rubber imports remain high, making the further accumulation of domestic stocks. January China’s imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, 480,000 tons, an increase of 22.7%.Among them, the import of 342,900 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 36.5%.
March will usher in China’s Yunnan region tapping season, new domestic rubber market soon, while the all-steel tires in Shandong Province in February the average operating rate fell to 58 percent, compared with 7 percent decline in January, February Shandong area half the average operating rate of steel tire 72%, down 7% from the previous month. Gathered bad macro side, China HSBC manufacturing PMI in February to 48.3, a seven-month low in February, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) reported 50.2%, slightly higher than in January down 0.3 percentage points, a record 8 months since the lows, the continued depreciation of the RMB. In addition, the real estate bubble burst is expected to lead to market panic.
Overall, the macroeconomic bad, infrastructure, real estate investment growth fell, bonded high inventory, the focus continues down HuJiao recommended HuJiao midline holding an empty one, do not blindly buy the dips. From the recent disk, HuJiao overall stronger shocks, but the amount of storage trends and structure, see atmosphere still darker. Therefore, the full year, HuJiao even rebound, the intensity is very limited.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/19581.html
