anuary, QE by the Fed to further reduce the size of the domestic natural rubber stocks continued to increase significantly the social impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and corporate purchasing rubber light and other factors, the domestic market, natural rubber prices continued to fall sharply, the highest since July 2009 lows . According to the China Logistics Information Center, market monitoring, January natural rubber prices fell 5.6 percent, down 4.1 percentage point increase.
First, a slight decrease in the amount of new resources
January, in the main producing areas of domestic natural rubber stop cutting period, the main producing areas of foreign production continues to increase, maintain steady growth in foreign imports. According to Customs statistics, January natural rubber imports 340,000 tons, a decline of 2.9%, an increase of 36.5%. January synthetic rubber imports 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month, down 1.5%.
Second, weak consumer demand steady
From the perspective of macro-environment rubber market, in January, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points qoq. Index down, to a certain extent by the ability of the country to resolve the capacity to increase the degree of influence such as the Spring Festival approaching companies cut short-term factors. On the whole, PMI index has been maintained since October 2012 more than 50 percent this month, although the decline, but remained above year-ago levels, indicating 2014 economic trends gentle start.
Downstream industries from rubber market situation, auto sales continued to grow rapidly. January 2014, automobile production 2,051,700, a decline of 4.03%, up 4.44%; sales of 2,156,400, higher than the record high of 22,200 in December 2013, growth of 1.04%, an increase of 5.99% . Among them, the production of 1,710,600 passenger cars, a decline of 4.02%, up 5.52%; sales of 1,846,900, growth of 3.93%, an increase of 7.03 percent. Commercial production of 341,100, a decline of 4.11%, down 0.64%; sales of 309,500, a decline of 13.36 percent, an increase of 0.18%. Tires still optimistic, stocking tire factory before the Spring Festival wishes decline, the market demand is weak. In addition, companies are also beginning stocking tight market funds is not strong willingness important reason. Migrant workers return home early, resulting in January enterprises operating rate significantly lower than the same period last year, a further decline in consumer expectations. Rubber consumption downturn led stocks are still at historically high levels, as of mid-January 2014, Qingdao Bonded rubber stocks again exceeded 30 million tons, an increase of 4.7% over last year.Supply pressure on rubber prices continued to constitute a rejection.
Third, the natural rubber market prices to new lows
According to the China Logistics Information Center, market monitoring, in January 2014, the average price of domestic natural rubber were down 5.6%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points last month to expand; fell 28.2%.Synthetic rubber composite average prices were down 0.4 percent, narrowed 0.5 percentage point decline from the previous month; fell 13.0%.
From the international market, Thailand 3 Smoked Sheet (RSS3) and Indonesia on the 20th standard plastic (SIR20) price shock downstream. Thai RSS3 average price of $ 2,355 (t price, the same below), down $ 221, the highest price of $ 2,480, the price is $ 2,165; Indonesia SIR20 average price of $ 2,161, down $ 174, the highest price of $ 2,270 , the lowest was $ 1,920; maturity RSS3 spot month average price of Singapore futures market was $ 2,351, down $ 216, the highest price of $ 2,485, the price is $ 2,170.January 2014 the main producing areas of international natural rubber prices in Figure 1.
Figure 1 January 2014 the main producing areas of international natural rubber prices
Note: Image Source China Tropical Agriculture Information Network
From the domestic market, domestic full-latex (SCRWF) spot prices have followed the trend abroad, the whole month was sustained downward trend, trading volume declined last month. Domestic full latex (SCRWF) Shanghai market average price of 16,845 yuan (t price, the same below), down 1,626 yuan, the highest price of 17,900 yuan, the lowest was 15,800 yuan; average price of 16,755 yuan Qingdao market, down 1,631 yuan , the highest price of 17,900 yuan, the lowest was 15,800 yuan / ton; Tianjin market average price was 16,910 yuan / ton, down 1,585 yuan / ton, the highest price of 18,000 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 16,000 yuan / ton.
Figure 2 January 2014 domestic sales areas of natural rubber prices
Note: Image Source China Tropical Agriculture Information Network
Fourth, the latter trend forecast
From a macro perspective, in 2014, a modest recovery in the world economy, but uncertainties remain. Recovery trend in developed countries is expected to continue as the main support of global economic recovery. The United Nations recently released “2014 World Economic Situation and Prospects,” the report pointed out that in 2014 global economic growth will reach 3.0 percent, while the IMF’s forecast is more optimistic that the world economic growth in 2014 will reach 3.6% . Domestically, PMI index continued to decline the past two months, especially the new orders index fell more significantly, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, down to 50.9 percent, the most since August of last year, the lowest level. The new orders index expanded with the production index gap. At the same time, the upstream product price index reflects changes in the purchase price index fell sharply. Down from 52.6% last year to 49.2 percent in December. The new export orders index fell for two consecutive months, decreased to less than 50%, reflecting While the world economy continues to turn for the better, but because of RMB appreciation, rising domestic labor costs, combined with increased international trade friction, exports are still significant uncertainty .
From the perspective of supply and demand. The future will continue to increase global supply of natural rubber. From 2005 to 2008 years, including my own, the world’s major natural rubber growing areas of a large number of new species turn normal tapping rubber trees has begun. Thus, the supply of concentrate increased time from last year has continued to be open by 2015.Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) expects 2014 global natural rubber supply growth will reach 5.8%, production was estimated at 12.453 million tons, an oversupply of capacity will rise to 36.6 million tons. This means that in 2014 natural rubber oversupply situation will worsen, adding to the downward pressure on rubber prices in the future.
Also, another factor is the bleak outlook for rubber prices of domestic environmental problems such as fog and haze. As environmental pressures and the purchase is expected to continue to increase, the market is more bearish outlook for 2014 demand for rubber. Although the growth rate of the domestic automobile market in 2013 improved significantly, another new global sales record, but there are super-expected growth in consumer overdraft ingredients. Several cities, including Chengdu, Hangzhou, including the purchase of the policy will be introduced to stimulate the panic buying ahead of behavior. With the increasing pressure of air pollution control, more cities will adopt restrictive policies in 2014 car sales may be down.
In addition to the purchase of the car, the state also encourages the recycling of scrap tires. At present, China scrap tires generated about 10 million tons was recovered only 60% utilization. Nearly 90% compared with the level of foreign and domestic waste tire recycling industry, there is a large space for development. China promulgated the last “comprehensive utilization of waste tire industry access Announcement Interim Measures,” the way to further encourage the development of waste tire recycling industry, promoting the development of environmental protection, but consumer demand weighed on the rubber market. Comprehensive analysis, the coming period, the domestic rubber substantial improvement in overall demand difficult.
In summary, the foreign part of the natural rubber is still in the main producing areas of open cut resource supply increases, while the domestic tire products enterprises operating rate of less than a drop in demand, causing huge social domestic natural rubber is difficult to digest inventory, supply loose, high inventory contradiction will be further intensified. Expected February domestic market prices of natural rubber will remain volatile downward trend.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/19809.html
