Shanghai market supply and demand side bias remains bearish but the shock

1. Natural rubber futures

Dong Jingjiao highs fell slightly, the main contract 1408 closing 235.0 yen, down 0.5 yen the previous day’s turnover of 4,666 hands.

Shanghai more shocks, the main RU1409 contract opened 15,455, the lowest 15,065, up 15,495, closing 15,175, down 35 points over the previous day, the settlement in 15230. 846,500 transactions a day, hand positions to reduce the 5596 hand to 222,506 hands.

2. Market valuation statistics

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Shanghai trend is relatively volatile, the overall highs. Referring to the spot market offer 1405 contracts mainly merchants offer little change in the overall yesterday, factories buying enthusiasm is limited, relatively flat market trading atmosphere. According to the merchant feedback, state full latex pressure was shipped.

3. Rubber network pending, transaction prices

4. International natural rubber outer disk

5. Natural rubber in the domestic market

The Fed’s announcement, but bad news for Shanghai repression limited role today Shanghai consolidation trend was narrow, limited the decline. Spot market offer small order, basic reference 1405-based contract offer, but the demand was significantly weaker downstream plants, a larger market shipments pressure. As of the morning, I heard a wholly state-owned Yunnan latex reference quoted in 14600-14900 yuan / ton, Hainan state whole milk 14600-14900 yuan / ton; Yunnan standard two plastic reference quoted in 13900-14000 yuan / ton; Thailand 3 # smoke film offer between 15100-15300 yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L offer at around 15000-15300 yuan / ton; imported bottled latex spot market reference price at 11700-11900 yuan / ton (17% of the votes).

6. Comprehensive analysis and forecast

News:

1 today, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to fall, and fell below two consecutive important juncture. Fell below the 6.20 mark early opening, hitting a year low. Afternoon break through 6.23 mark. As of 14:59, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar extended losses midday break through the 6.23 mark, the lowest reported 6.2318.

2, the Shanghai Composite Index closed below 2000 points mark, at 1993.48 points, down 28.26 points, or 1.40%, turnover of 88.631 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 6998.19 points refers to a five-year low, down 151.92 points, or 2.12%, turnover of 120.52 billion yuan.

3, Thursday (March 20), the central bank 26 billion 28-day repurchase operations. Wind statistics show that if no other operations, the central bank open market this week will be a net return of capital of 4.8 billion yuan.

4, Yellen at a news conference after the first FOMC meeting as Fed chairman, said in since, giving up 6.5 percent unemployment rate hike is not because it has no effect threshold is expected to be the fall of 2014 to consider the interest rate issue (Editor’s Note: Yellen began to express the autumn of next year (next fall), 后耶伦 in the reporter’s question was not clarified autumn hike next year, but this fall (coming fall) End QE) and reaffirmed the QE program may end this fall. Yellen also said the Fed may be “a long period of time” to maintain the current low interest rates. “Considerable time” refers to the end of QE hike could be between six months or so. If this calculation, six months means that the Fed rate hike may be the first time in April 2015.

QE and the Fed continued to shrink in 2015 Chinese New Year may start raising interest rates on the financial markets or to bring a greater impact, the Nikkei index stocks, the Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite Index there are different degrees of decline. Shanghai reflects a certain degree of resilience, but did not follow the stock market decline, indicating that there may be short-term support at around 15,000 points. I personally think that the current domestic situation of excess supply, and weak demand for medium and small factories, the current price is not a factor limiting demand, but lack of sales and factory orders itself, if there is no improvement in this area, then it will be difficult to stimulate existing inventory digestion. The decline in the index is not a unilateral influence factors, reflecting the downward pressure on the domestic economy. Recent HSBC flash PMI will also be released, the data need to focus on the impact of the situation on the disk. Shanghai may still decline after finishing the space, you need to confirm the location of the bottom.

Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/19805.html