Natural rubber futures short-term shocks to seek direction

After Shanghai continued to fall, March 11 limit, showing a strong rebound in the will, but in recent days appeared to adjust the signs of short-term long and short fierce, natural rubber futures prices fluctuate significantly.

ANRPC report shows that the estimated 2014 China’s rubber imports rose 11% to 4.26 million tons, and consumption is expected to grow 5.1 percent to 4.36 million tons. China Customs data show that in January 2014, China imported natural rubber and synthetic rubber, 480,000 tons, an increase of 22.7%. Among them, the import of 342,900 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 36.5%, as ever the second highest monthly import volume.

Natural rubber imports have more than 300,000 tons for two consecutive months, imports accounted for almost two months last year, 30% of imports.Prior to China and Thailand signed a 800,000 tons of natural rubber import orders, started from November 2013, the market outlook is still higher imports.

As of March 14, total inventory Qingdao Bonded rubber reached 353,800 tons, up by the end of a full 10,000 tons. Specifically, the increase in some of the major natural rubber stocks, while synthetic rubber and composite rubber stocks steady decrease slightly. Overall, Qingdao Bonded rubber stock is saturated. Last week, natural rubber warehouse inventories fell 7,980 tons to 151,560 tons, the total inventory reduction of 4,165 tons to 192,470 tons. After the exchange stocks hit a new high, started to decrease. Even so, there are still high.

Automobile Association recently released data show that in January 2014, domestic car sales were completed 2,051,700 and 2,156,400, respectively, production decreased by 4%, while sales were up 1%. Among them, trucks and buses and other commercial vehicle sales more sluggish, heavy-duty truck sales were completed 62,900 and 51,200 respectively, a decline of 12.46% and 35.96% respectively. Because commercial vehicles, especially heavy truck sales are sluggish, the downstream rubber consumption to boost the stock is limited.

Fixed costs of natural rubber plantations 7000-8000 yuan / ton, tapping cost of 7,000 yuan / ton, totaling 14000-15000 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic spot market rubber prices are undervalued, have reflected the fact that high domestic stocks. Comparison of different types of plastic, rubber current Hainan Old lowest price in 14200 yuan / ton, 20 # compound rubber prices in Thailand in 13,900 yuan / ton, the price is lower than 15,800 yuan if the disk / ton, arbitrage funds are unattractive .

In summary, the current high inventory FTZ, coupled with massive imports and sluggish consumer outlook, the long road to the inventory, these factors always suppress disk prices. However, natural rubber planting and harvesting costs have support on the disk. Shanghai rubber market outlook is expected to oscillate based.

Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/19847.html