MARKET COMMENTARY
Rubber prices in the spot market continued their steady run despite the upside in benchmark contracts on the National Multi Commodity Exchange amid thin volumes. The commodity has traded in a narrow range of 146.50-150.00 rupees per kg since the start of this month. Benchmark TOCOM rubber futures rose early on Monday, but were still facing a 14 percent tumble over the first quarter as demand worries in top buyer China, weak Japanese equities and a firmer yen hit sentiment. The benchmark September contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was at 235.3 yen (136.9 rupees) per kg, up 1.8 yen from the previous close. The contract has touched an intraday high of 237.4 yen and a low of 233.0 yen so far today.
MARKET NEWS
⊳ According to the latest statistics from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), major rubber growing countries saw their combined natural rubber output up 19 percent year-on-year in February, and that in January-February up 10 percent year-on-year.
⊳ China’s natural rubber output in January-February rose 33.3 percent, higher than any other country. Thailand’s rose 21 percent.
⊳ Rubber inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.1 percent week-on-week, the exchange said on Friday.
⊳ China’s manufacturing engine contracted in the first quarter of 2014, a preliminary private survey showed on Monday, raising market expectations of government stimulus to arrest a loss of momentum in the world’s second-largest economy this year.
⊳ Vietnam’s rubber production jumped 20.8 percent in 2013 compared with 2012, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, the Vietnam Economic Times newspaper reported.
⊳ Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 2.8 percent to 22056 metric tonnes on March 10, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Apr NMCE
Expect to trade in a range of 14950-14600 levels with mild positive bias. A direct rise above 14950 would be an early signal of a short covering rally, anticipated to take prices towards 15320-15400 levels. Conversely, drop below 14600 may call for a deep correction.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS |
Supports |
|
14980-15060 |
15400-14350 |
14750 |
|
15320-15500 |
|
14650-14500 |
|
15850/16000 |
|
14350-14200 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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