Since March, natural rubber market in the wavelet stabilizes. Into April, Shanghai picking up slightly slowed down, to Wednesday, Shanghai No breakthrough high stage at the end; the last two days, there are challenges 16,000 yuan intraday performance, but have failed to implementation, display a larger 16,000 yuan pressure. The amount of warehouse data showed net short Shanghai still in the main dominant trend, but significantly expanded clearance advantages No, still intense competition for long and short.
Thailand plans to throw Reserve early April, to add some pressure to improve Shanghai stage. In early April, the Minister of Agriculture of Thailand said that the Thai government plans to sell 200,000 tons of rubber reserves in April. This part of the rubber is beginning in August 2012, the Thai government purchasing and storage policy through the acquisition of rubber and thereafter the Thai government said the sale will be temporarily plan. Currently, the Thai government if implemented rubber cast storage, it is outdated.
On the one hand, the price of natural rubber in 2011 at this stage since the downstream channel, did not show signs of a fundamental twist, the current market price fell by about 37% compared to 2012 when purchasing and storage. By this time the market price of the sale, even if the old glue premium calculation, the overall look is also unprofitable. On the other hand, the overall supply and demand of natural rubber in 2014 continued the pattern of over-supply situation, and then increase the supply of natural rubber, the contradiction between supply and demand will obviously be deepened. And 200,000 tons of reserves of close to throwing the lowest monthly level of output in Thailand, the Thai equivalent of doubling the supply of natural rubber in April. In the short term, but also to improve the supply and demand side stage obstruct.
Choose to watch from the way the sale, the Thai government plans to first rubber to the domestic stock market. Sold through negotiation approach to foreign tire manufacturers directly; or sold to Thai exporters, exporters again the global market for resale.
Sell directly to foreign domestic tire plant, expected to actually digest or limited. The first two months of 2014, Thailand rubber tires and rubber tubes, rubber tire retread and reproduction shipments index, the index hit its lowest level since the same period in 2011; and the laws of history shows that April will be the rubber tires and rubber tubes, renovation and lows during reproduction shipments of rubber tires.Therefore, in the short term to digest its domestic downstream industries rubber limited, and will decline year on year data have some digestion rubber drag. Looking throughout the second quarter, digest rubber stocks, you need to hope that the shipments in May MoM recovery can offset some of the decrease year on year. The extent of the impact, the main impact of the supply and demand of natural rubber in Thailand, less impact on the external market.
Sell to exporters, will increase the global supply pressures. The export volume of 200,000 tons, close to Thailand for nearly four years in the second quarter the average monthly export volume, representing an increase of exports a month. Although the same period in Malaysia, Vietnam’s exports are in the low for the year, but Indonesia’s exports are still at a high level during the year. Thus, with the new cast storage Thai rubber exports, the export season break in the second quarter. The impact of efforts to look this way for the formation of a larger global market supply pressure is not conducive to improving the supply and demand side stage, natural rubber prices will further lower pressure.
We believe that, if you do throw Chu, Chu Thai way of selecting a single throw low probability, be taken two ways at the same time, the actual impact will depend on the proportion of different ways.
Performed on the attitude of the Thai government is not firmly cast storage, bad facts Not honored. The Thai government said it would assess the market before taking action, due to concerns about the current release of government stocks will further weigh on prices, the government will sell 200,000 tons of rubber in the national inventory affordable. If the very worst, it will not sell. At present, the market price of natural rubber is still at low levels, not only in Thailand throwing Reserve suppress their natural rubber prices, will have an impact on other rubber producing countries, which are reluctant to passive acceptance of other countries. In addition, the Thai government is currently belong caretaker nature, may affect the next government has no right to sign the sales contract. If you want to throw Reserve, we must first obtain the consent election monitoring committee. Therefore, the introduction of the time watching from the policy temporarily not launch immediately.
Overall, however, whether or not the Thai cast storage, both short-term supply and demand patterns to improve play a role in the repression of information surfaces. Is expected in the second quarter affected Thailand throwing Reserve policy, the original supply and demand will face greater pressure to improve the stage again, but before throwing Reserve policy implementation, supply and demand for natural rubber surface phased improvement trend still has some support. Shanghai, the short term upward slightly hesitant to continue range-bound, post concerns cast storage case, temporarily overly pessimistic.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/20151.html
