[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: November 30, 2012

MARKET COMMENTARY

Extending losses, natural rubber prices in the local market declined for the third consecutive day on Thursday and are probably poised to conclude this week’s session in red after posting gains the previous week. RSS4 in the physical market slipped towards its weakest in about two weeks while NMCE rubber futures dropped more than two per cent, erasing mostly the gains acquired in the previous week. Currently, the market fundamentals are mixed, yet prices are likely to remain under pressure.
SHFE rubber futures continued to decline while AFET and TOCOM rubber futures are seen extending the previous session gains as the week’s session culminates. Upbeat economic indicators from US and Japan provided firm support. Also, disruption in tapping in the top natural rubber producer Thailand owing to rains too supported the prices. Yet, burgeoning stockpiles with China, the top consumer, weighed on, capping gains.

TECHNICAL VIEW

According to ANRPC, China’s Jan.-Nov. consumption rose 6.7% to 3.51million tonne and its natural rubber consumption this year is anticipated to be 3.83 million tonne from 3.77million tonne.
Rubber stocks held by Thai Govt stand at 170000 tonnes and are expected to rise to 410000 tonnes by March-end.
According to Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, November rubber exports may drop 25% on YoY basis to 95,000 tonnes
Rubber Board aims to expand total area under natural rubber cultivation to 4.0 lakh hectares by 2017.
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses rose 15.5 percent to 6,739 metric tons on Nov. 10, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
Traders in China are increasing imports of the natural variety from Thailand as expectations of stockpiling by the Chinese government push up domestic prices.
Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE jumped 35.5 per cent to 90325 tonnes the previous week to hit two and a half year high.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Dec NMCE

The slippage past 17400 has induced further weakness, yet prices were held near the earlier low of 16971. Now, prices require clearing the congestion region of 16950-16800 to continue its downtrend. Else, a bounce back to 17200 initially followed by 17340/17450 or more may be seen. RUBBER Dec NMCE The slippage past 17400 has induced further weakness, yet prices were held near the earlier low of 16971. Now, prices require clearing the congestion region of 16950-16800 to continue its downtrend. Else, a bounce back to 17200 initially followed by 17340/17450 or more may be seen.

Source: Geojit Comtrade

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