MARKET COMMENTARY
Rubber prices in the wholesale markets of Kottayam in Kerala ended lower, extending Monday’s losses due to subdued demand for the commodity. The benchmark contracts on the National Multi Commodity Exchange too track a similar trend. Most rubber futures on TOCOM recovered today due to technical buying after declining in the past few sessions. However, the most active September contract came under pressure after witnessing an uptick for most part of the session as concerns over high stockpiles globally and over economic growth in China persisted. The benchmark September contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was off its intraday high of 205.3 yen a kg at 201.4 yen per kg, down 0.2 yen from the previous close. The contract has touched an intraday low of 200.8 yen so far today.
MARKET
⊳ U.S. home resale fell to their lowest level in more than 1-1/2 years in March, data showed on Tuesday, but there were signs a recent downward trend that has plagued the housing market may be drawing to an end.
⊳ U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 on Tuesday ahead of data expected to show that inventories in the world’s top oil-consuming nation have risen close to record highs.
⊳ According to provisional data with the Rubber Board of India, the country exported only 5,381 tonne of NR in 2013-14 against 30,594 tonne in 2012-13. The fall is as high as 82%. And the NR imports surged to 324,467 tonne from 217,364 tonne in 2012-2013.
⊳ SHFE rubber stockpiles fall 3,812 tons to 170,000 tons, reported Friday.
⊳ Rubber Shipments from Malaysia advance 3.5% in 2013, says Ahmad Hamzah, chairman of Malaysian Rubber Board. Added, domestic consumption increased 3.4% to 724,100 mt; imports jumped 15%.
⊳ Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said that there is more than 70% chance of the El Nino phenomenon developing during the southern hemisphere winter or Indian summers. The phenomenon usually has a negative correlation with Jun-Sep monsoon rains in India.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER May NMCE
The recovery moves witnessed in the previous session is unlikely to continue the day unless it clears the stiff upside obstacle of 13950 convincingly. However, a direct dip below 13400 could attract more bears in the counter and possibly take prices towards 13100 later.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 13800-13950 | 13950-13400 | 13450-13400 |
| 14150-14400 | 13300-13100 | |
| 14750-15150 | 12800-12550 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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