* Tokyo rubber seen in 190-215 yen/kg range this week
* Thai sugar premiums, cocoa butter ratios seen unchanged
* Coffee supply picks up in Indonesia
By Lewa Pardomuan
SINGAPORE, April 28 (Reuters) – Concerns about the state ofChinese economy will overshadow the impact of tight supply onrubber prices this week, with the benchmark Tokyo futurescontract likely to trade near its lowest in more than fouryears, dealers said on Monday.
Among other soft commodities, robusta coffee supply couldpick up in Indonesia as the main crop progresses and Thai sugarpremiums could be stuck in the current ranges, while cocoagrinders chase buyers after Easter sales.
The most active October rubber contract on the TokyoCommodity Exchange rose 3.7 yen a kg to 205.9 yen totrack gains in oil, but prices were still within sight of a4-1/2-year low of 196.7 hit last week. The contract has plunged25 percent this year.
“There are so many supportive factors but prices are stillgoing down. So I guess the market is very much influenced by theslowdown in the Chinese economy,” said Vanessa Tan, aninvestment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
“There has been conflicting economic data on China. There’sno consensus yet whether the economy is recovering well. Aslowdown in China will affect demand for rubber,” said Tan, whopegged resistance at 215 yen and support at 190 yen.
Although supply is tight in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysiaduring the wintering season, tyre-grade prices could not resistpressure from Tokyo futures, whose movements are ofteninfluenced by macroeconomics, currencies, equities and politics.
A drop in rubber inventories in warehouses monitored by theShanghai Futures Exchange has also failed to offer support.
In the sugar market, Thai raw premiums may stay at lastweek’s levels of 75 to 80 points to New York futures, butpotential buyers are likely to wait for bargains because ofample supply.
Early indications showed that Indonesian robusta premiumswere little changed from last week’s levels of $20 to $30 atonne to London futures, much more expensive thanVietnamese robustas, which were offered at $80 below futures.
Indonesia and Vietnam, which compete in the robusta market,together account for about 27 percent of global coffee output.Indonesia robustas could be sold at discounts when the harvestpeaks in the middle of this year.
Indonesia’s total coffee output is forecast at 11.667million 60-kg bags in the 2013/14 crop year, down from 12.730million bags in 2012/13, according to the International CoffeeOrganization.
In the cocoa market, grinders are still waiting forchocolate makers to return after buying butter to meet Easterdemand. Butter ratios are unchanged at 2.40 times London futures (Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)
– Reuters
