1. Natural rubber market review
April, ending Shanghai rebound fell again, April 23 is a record low of more than three years to adjust 13755 points, only the rebound near the end of the month. Downward pressure on domestic macroeconomic unabated, natural rubber (14115, -235.00, -1.64%) stock oversupply, and the listing of new plastic and Southeast areas of open cut is to continue to bring to market pressure. As of April 30, 1409 Shanghai main contract closed 14,340 points, fell 8.92 percent monthly; greater decline on rubber, plastic index fell by 13.15% over the same period.
The spot market, the whole piece of latex and smoke fundamental reference 1405 and 1409 contract offer, east China 3L and smoked rubber supply tight, prices remain high. U.S. plate, spot an adequate supply, but as the market has stabilized the market inquiry slightly increased, but still low real single transaction. As of the end of state-owned Yunnan reference quoted in full latex 13550-13800 yuan / ton, Hainan state 13 full latex 13600-13800 yuan / ton, Hainan state full of old plastic milk 13000-13400 yuan / ton; Yunnan marked two plastic reference price in 12900 about -13 100 yuan / ton; Thailand 3 # smoke film in 14200-15000 yuan / ton (17% of votes); Vietnam 3L rubber price in 14400-14800 yuan / ton (17% of votes); imported bottled latex spot market reference price 11600-11800 yuan / ton (17% votes)
2. Fundamental analysis
2.1, Macroeconomics: the U.S. economy is running well, the Fed continues to cut QE
Fed’s April 30 meeting that economic activity in the winter months growth slowed sharply, due to adverse weather conditions affecting part of the recent U.S. economic activity growth has accelerated. Labor market indicators were mixed, but overall display further improvement, but unemployment remains high. It seems that household spending is growing at a faster pace, business fixed investment was down, the property market recovery is still slow, the fiscal policy to limit economic growth, but to limit the intensity may be weakening. Inflation has been below the level of the Commission’s longer-term goal, but longer-term inflation expectations remain stable. After a two-day Federal Reserve meeting after Wednesday (April 30) decided to further reduce the size of the asset purchase per month from 10 billion to 45 billion U.S. dollars, as expected.
Domestically, April HSBC China PMI edged up from 48 the previous month to 48.3, indicating that the pace of economic growth has slowed downward; output and new orders index showed a seasonally weak rebound, but the export orders index slip, indicating demand still low; price index rebounded, indicating PPI chain is expected to rebound; raw materials inventory index continues downward and finished goods index below shows corporate destocking continues. Domestic government recently introduced to increase the railway construction and shantytowns financing support, tax incentives for SMEs to expand and accelerate the construction of major new energy projects, such as directional RRR series of policy measures to help avoid accelerated economic decline, but still no fundamentally reversed the momentum of the economic downturn. In addition, the county rural commercial banks and cooperative banks to meet the requirements appropriate to reduce the deposit reserve ratio, intended to increase long-term funding targeted delivery, reduce financing costs entity, a limited boost to the market orientation of quasi-lowering effect of lowering standards because of the universality of orientation implementation of the policy becomes more difficult to introduce.
Overall, the U.S. economic recovery is good to a certain extent is expected to boost demand for commodities, and AP QE scale and continue to reduce the domestic economy is still not fundamentally reverse the downward trend of commodity markets has brought greater pressure.
2.2, Srude: the trend appears difficult rally
The supply side, the situation remained tense in Ukraine, Russia, Europe and the United States to continue the confrontation, geopolitical positive continuity. Negative factors, the total U.S. crude oil inventories rose to historic highs over the same period, the performance of global supply-side loose, negative factors prevail. U.S. Energy Information Administration believes that deadline April 25 week, U.S. crude oil, gasoline stocks and an overall increase in distillate stocks. U.S. crude oil inventories 3.99357 billion barrels, an increase of 1.7 million barrels the previous week; total U.S. gasoline inventories 2.11572 billion barrels, an increase of 156 million barrels the previous week; distillate fuel stocks to 1.14449 billion barrels, an increase of 194 million barrels the previous week. Crude oil stocks is 1% higher than last year; gasoline stocks 2% lower than last year; distillate stocks 1.1 percent lower than last year. Crude oil stocks above the upper limit of the average range of five years; gasoline inventories corresponding period in 2005 is located in the lower half of the average range; average range Distillate stocks located in the second half of the year over the same period.
The demand side, the U.S. refinery maintenance has ended, the operating rate rise makes gasoline production increased, while the seasonal peak gasoline demand is yet to come, the current market demand in general. As of April 25 the week, total U.S. gasoline stocks 2.11572 billion barrels, an increase of 156 million barrels the previous week. The latter, as the consumer into the off-season, the Ukrainian oil market seems to worry about the numbness in desalination and crude oil prices rally trend is difficult to occur, the main shock bearish run.
2.3, Demand: Jiaojia support weak consumption, some serious tire companies overstock
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, March domestic trucks (including non-complete vehicles, semi-trailer tractor) market sales 401,152 and 406,415, the production growth of 49.73 percent, an increase of 4.84%, while sales growth of 60.42%, an increase of 0.82%, heavy card data performed better, or lay the groundwork for future rubber prices rebound, but due to the decline in demand for downstream replacement tire market, tire companies are still used with the purchase. China Rubber Industry Association expects 2014 growth in China’s rubber consumption or lower than last year, the national rubber consumption growth of about 10%, at 900 million tons. Among them, the natural rubber grew about 14%, about 4.8 million tons; synthetic rubber growth of around 5%, about 4.3 million tons. It should be noted phenomenon is to run from 2011, the automotive industry selling hot conditions Jiaojia supportive increasingly weak.
Tires, domestic tire production remains good growth, but production continued to grow at the same time, tire factory inventories are growing, growth in tire production is mainly affected by profit growth, in this condition, tire plant capacity If you can not be finished destocking, lack of downstream demand will be re-transmitted to the rubber in previous years, from March to May, the basic maintenance of domestic factories at full capacity, but this year, the operating rate has slowed, some manufacturers overstock serious .
2.4, Supply: tapping into producing season, fell within the range of the cost of rubber prices to increase rubber yield difficulty
Geographical advantages major rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia it is below the cost of production in China, Thailand Songkran Festival into a new season of increase, the supply pressure will gradually increase.Southeast Asian spot prices recently experienced a significant decline.According to The Rubber Econimist forecasts, due to weak demand and production in Thailand than expected 2014 global natural rubber surplus will expand, or climbed from 2013’s 336,000 tons to 366,000 tons. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) consider seasonal weather conditions and the impact of the current low price of natural rubber production in March a major factor, so ANRPC is expected in March or natural rubber production to 74.9 million tons, down from last year 5.5%. Domestic supply of Yunnan stabilized areas, some glue factory fresh glue purchase price in 12-12.5 yuan / kg. In addition, the current cost of natural rubber prices have fallen within the range, this year’s international and domestic rubber production continued to grow in increasing difficulty.
2.5, Imports and inventory: Bonded need time to digest inventory, warehouse receipts and exchange begins to flow
Customs data show that China’s natural rubber imports in March was 270,600 tons, representing an increase of 15.6%, far exceeding the market demand for the incremental increase in imported glue, the latter imported glue or lower prices will further depress domestic rubber prices. Qingdao Free Trade Zone, as of April 15 inventories increased 360,200 tons, which increased to 255,900 tons of natural rubber stocks, synthetic rubber and adhesive then there was a certain degree of decline, reflecting the current high inventory supply and demand environment is still not been significantly improved. The period of the stock, as of April 30, the week of the natural rubber stocks down 1467 to 167,642 tons, deliverable stocks fell 1700 to 125,820 tons, the exchange inventory refresh record highs, stocks began to decline. Exchange warehouse continuous outflow of nearly a month, but the factors that account for a large component of pay storage, the amount of the real into the consumer field may not be much.
2.6. Synthetic rubber: bottoming out, the market performance stalemate
4 months late, butadiene rubber prices steady to the end, to boost business confidence and sales companies limit the amount of a single control, not much cash supply, businesses reported significantly higher, the rate of increase ranging from 100-500 yuan, but the downstream receiving Cargo intention is not high, in fact, a single transaction weakness, the market continued stalemate. As of late, Shandong Qilu Shun Ding region reported 11,200 yuan / ton, East China Takahashi butadiene around 11500-11700 yuan / ton, Maoming South China butadiene in 10600-10700 yuan / ton, Daqing butadiene at 11,200 yuan / ton , last week over the same period of adjustment in the 200-400 yuan / ton. SBR, the petrochemical enterprises in order to ensure the production and sales profits, continue to hold steady for the price of styrene-butadiene rubber 1502, combined sales of more than the end of the company stock, the dealer plans to control the amount of household billing, factory direct supply to increase the amount of intermediate the amount of goods on the market is tight, businesses offer a narrow rise, but the real tough one price with the rise, the market turnover is still weak. As of late, Jilin, Qilu Song Hong 1502 rubber market price between 12100-12700 yuan / ton, Qilu 1712 rubber prices in 11300 yuan / ton.
2.7, concerned about the impact of El Niño on natural rubber
Rubber tree plant belongs, itself a part of the water can be maintained, even after three months or so there is no rain. If this year’s El Nino is a small level, then the effects of natural rubber production will be limited.But if El Niño occurs leading to extreme weather, such as rain after a long time did not dump torrential rain continued, it might have a certain degree of influence tapping, and the further expansion of the El Nino phenomenon will lead to a significant reduction in natural rubber production, which will result in a sharp rise in natural rubber prices.
3. May market outlook
The macro level, the recent U.S. economic activity growth has accelerated, the job market as a whole display further improvement, the Fed on April 30 decided to further reduce the size of the monthly asset purchases from 10 to 45 billion U.S. dollars. China’s economic growth has slowed the pace of downward, output and new orders index showed a seasonally weak rebound, but the export orders index slip, indicating demand is still low, downside momentum is still not fundamentally reversed. Thus, the macro negative factors greater than bullish, the commodity market may shock bearish run based.
Terms of supply and demand of natural rubber, cut open the current season of producing full access to the domestic areas suitable climate tapping, tapping work in Thailand not delay; while Qingdao Bonded port stocks remain high, destocking slow market surplus pattern has not changed.But there are rumors that this year there will appear super El Nino phenomenon may, thus resulting in reduced production of rubber. Review monthly and pre-investment plan, Shanghai performance in line with our expectations, outlook in May, rubber shock bearish trend may be to the main 1409 contract midline above the pressure level 15200, but after the interval below cost, the need to be vigilant After the rapid decline of prices brought rebound correction, not chasing empty.
Risk Warning: uncertain situation in the U.S. economic recovery, the Fed continues to cut QE shrink after rate hike; Ukraine turmoil in support of oil prices.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/20544.html
