Recently, by high inventories and sluggish downstream demand double drag, filling HuJiao decline, falling below 14,000 yuan / ton mark, downward trend is more obvious.
Reserve bad throw rubber prices in Thailand
Early agriculture minister said the government of Thailand will sell 220,000 tons of natural rubber massive inventory before the end. Natural rubber prices in recent months, all the way down, and warehousing costs the government about 20 million baht / month, plus Southeast tapping season approaching, if not promptly throw Reserve release inventory, quality natural rubber will deteriorate even more detrimental to the late rubber trend. Review of November 2012, in order to save the city glue downturn, the world’s largest natural rubber producer, the Thai government to the Cabinet plans to apply for 25 billion baht for purchasing and storage 410,000 tons of natural rubber. Although the specific measures yet to be determined cast storage, but the bad news will continue to affect natural rubber market.
In addition, the International Rubber Study Group said that because Thailand acreage is undervalued, 2014 revised the amount of the excess global supply of natural rubber three times higher than previous estimates.In recent years, the market has an oversupply of rubber, natural rubber this year is expected to have a body of excess production will be 428,000 tons, the highest in nearly 10 years to reach the level of production. Increasing the supply pressure will HuJiao bearish impact.
Bonded high inventory to normal
As of the end of April, Qingdao Bonded rubber stocks totaled 361,000 tons, including 263,000 tons of natural rubber, higher than 07,000 tons in mid-April. Over the past few years, considerable speculative profits attract a lot of speculative capital into the natural rubber market engaged in financing trade, leading to high inventories of natural rubber Qingdao Free Trade Zone. Under the premise of a global oversupply of natural rubber as well as the existence of trade financing, investors Qingdao Bonded inventory will remain high, the high inventory of more than 250,000 tons will become the norm. Due to capacity constraints Bonded rubber stocks rose to a total of more than 380,000 tons possibility unlikely. Statistical data over the years that the traditional 5-September destocking season, at home and abroad welcomed the tapping season, if not successful destocking outlook, the constraints Hujiao prices rebounded.
Dealer inventory pressures ease slightly
According to the China Automobile Dealers VIA warning Index survey shows that in April 2014 inventory warning index was 46.3 percent, up 1.8 percentage points. From the observation that sub-indicators, April car sales volume declined slightly increased dealer inventory. April dealer inventory did not show significant decline, mainly in the following two reasons: First, in April tepid sales led to the original dealer inventory accumulation has not been fully digested, the second is affected by the new car market, some dealers on the part of the inventory of the supplement.
Notably, the dealer slightly ease the pressure on the stock is not driven by lower consumption.
In short, due to weak fundamentals, natural rubber, combined with follow-up with the supply-side pressure, as well as downstream market downturn, down HuJiao will find support in the short term may be concerned about the low intensity of support before.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/20589.html
