According to Shanghai Customs statistics, in the first quarter of this year, Shanghai Customs District imported a total of 80,000 tons of natural rubber, fell by 15.5% over the same period last year (the same below); worth 1.07 billion yuan, down 34.2%; import average price per ton 13000 yuan, down 22.1%.
1. Main features of the first quarter of this year, Shanghai Customs District imported natural rubber
(A) a single month for three consecutive months, imports decrease year on year, the average import price of 28 consecutive months of decline. Since January of this year, Shanghai Customs District imported natural rubber was minus monthly drop in price trend. March of the month in which imported 25,000 tons, down 20.4%, an increase of 31.4%; import average price of 13,000 yuan per ton, down 5.2%, down 27.2 percent, the 28th consecutive month since December 2011 showing an downward trend, a record low in November 2009 nearly 53 months since.
(B) nearly 5 percent in processing trade imports, the proportion of general trade imports declined. One quarter of this year, Shanghai Customs District in processing trade imports 40,000 tons of natural rubber, an increase of 29.8%, representing total imports of natural rubber customs area proportion increased from 32.4% in the same period last year to 49.7%. Same period, the general trade import 31,000 tons, a decrease of 41%, accounting for 38.2 percent of total imports of natural rubber customs area over the same period, the proportion fell 16.5 percent. In addition, logistics and customs supervision of goods imported by 08,000 tons, decreased by 34.8%.
(C) the vast majority of imports from ASEAN, of which imports from Thailand significantly reduced. One quarter of this year, Shanghai Customs District imported from ASEAN 79,000 tons of natural rubber, reducing by 15.3%, accounting for 98.8 percent of total imports of natural rubber customs area over the same period. Among them, the import of 51,000 tons from Thailand, reducing by 29.5%, accounting for the total imports of natural rubber fell off area proportion of 76.3% from the same period last year to 63.7%; from Indonesia imported 17,000 tons, an increase of 2.9%; imports from Vietnam 08000 ton, surged 2.9 times.
(D) the proportion of foreign-invested enterprises import significantly improved, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises import are substantially reduced. One quarter of this year, foreign-invested enterprises by Shanghai Customs District imported natural rubber, 34,000 tons, an increase of 30.7%, representing total imports of natural rubber customs area proportion increased from 27.3% in the same period last year to 42.2%. Same period, the state-owned enterprises and private enterprises were imported 25,000 tons and 21,000 tons, respectively, 37.2%, and reduction to reduce 26.9%.
2. First quarter of this year mainly due to Shanghai Customs District’s natural rubber imports minus the rate of reduction
(A) domestic natural rubber stocks high, weak demand for imports. As of March 14, total inventory Qingdao Bonded rubber reached 353,800 tons, is saturated. In the high inventory of natural rubber, while finished goods inventory due to the high prices, sluggish sales, the downstream tire factory operating rate rise slowly. Tire companies have two-thirds of the country’s Shandong Province, Feb. steel tire average operating rate fell to 58 percent, fell 7 percent, semi-steel tire capacity utilization rate of 72% on average, a decline of 7%. High inventories and weak downstream demand, resulting in sustained reduction in imports of natural rubber.
(B) production of natural rubber in the international market remains high, lower prices to stimulate supply and demand imbalance. As the main rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia have moved into a new species of open cut, making the world’s natural rubber supply into the big cycle, international rubber prices continued to fall. ANRPC (Association of Natural Rubber producing countries) March report shows that a quarter of the total output of 2,523,200 tons, an increase of 5.13%, the overall supply remains growth. According to ANRPC forecast, this year’s global natural rubber supply surplus capacity will rise to 36.6 million tons. In addition, after several years of expansion in Vietnam, increasing production of rubber, rubber production this year will be close to 100 million tons. Due to the global oversupply and inventory limited capacity, Vietnam’s growing production in rubber prices may have been in a few years when the stimulus low prices further down.
3. Issues of concern and recommendations
It is noteworthy that China, as the world’s largest consumer of natural rubber, accounting for 35% of total global consumption in 2015 to more than 3.5 million tons, while China’s annual output of only about 600,000 tons of natural rubber, natural rubber on the international market dependence show a continued upward trend in recent years has exceeded 70%. Rubber as the national economy and national defense needs are the greatest variety, excessive dependence on imports is not conducive to the stability of China’s rubber industry raw material supply. Development of domestic rubber plantations and rubber resources to invest overseas is the main way to solve the over-reliance on the external rubber, but there is still the following difficulties:
(A) the international rubber prices fell sharply on China’s rubber plantations cause greater impact. This year, international rubber prices continued to slump in domestic prices low, resulting in a substantial decline in revenue of rubber growers, production has been affected, the former open-cut rubber workers for duty to ensure that, in place it is difficult to achieve. According to statistics, the price of natural rubber from the beginning of 2013, fell to 27,000 yuan per ton, the lowest 14,000 yuan. According to industry analysts, according to the current price, after deducting the price of labor, production price index rising prices and other factors, the actual price level has been equivalent to 8,000 yuan per ton during the 2008 financial crisis. In addition, natural conditions, production management, labor costs and other aspects into consideration, the domestic rubber planting area compared with foreign rubber planting area, has a natural disadvantage. Because China is a non-traditional rubber planting area, by chilling, typhoons and other natural disasters affecting large number of trees saved acres of rubber plantation, low production capacity and yield levels glue; while the main rubber planting area in Southeast Asia, Thailand, Malaysia because of low labor costs , high yield, and therefore more price competitive.
(B) lack of business overseas development policy faces the difficult problem of investment and resold overseas rubber planting initiative frustrated. Natural rubber enterprises “going out” strategy as an effective way to ease the contradiction between supply and demand of China’s one, get some development in recent years. 2020 1.9 million tons cooperation resources, control the amount of natural rubber will reach 3.9 million tons, from the current dependence on foreign dropped 40% to 80% more than the basic realization of the domestic supply of natural rubber. However, the development of China’s lack of natural rubber enterprises overseas investment policy, China’s rubber planting enterprise funds operating outside pressure. In addition, since the production of the product can not be sold back to the country to enjoy the national treatment, based upon the current general imported goods imposed a 20% tariff rate, the product to bear the country of export taxes and import duties, not only losing price competitiveness, but also to increase our overseas the burden on enterprises. To this end, the domestic rubber prices outside rubber planting initiative frustrated.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/20611.html
