3.2. Lower-than-expected consumption to improve
3.2.1. The domestic auto uneven development
3.2.1 .1. Domestic car destocking pressure is still large
China Automobile Dealers Association announced auto dealer inventory findings show that the car dealer inventory continuous decline in March, September inventory coefficient decreased slightly to 1.50 in September 2012, but picked up again in October to 1.54 in 1.5 top cordon critical point. The inventory coefficient greater than 2.5 9 brands, Japanese brands occupy five seats, the inventory coefficient Acura, up to 10.08.
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According to various automobile companies announced business situation, 18 vehicle manufacturers listed automobile company in the third quarter of this year, passenger vehicles listed companies, only SAIC, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motor net profit year-on-year growth The remaining five passenger car prices net profit slipped further, FAW and FAW Xiali losses, while the FAW losses reached 250 million yuan on its financial report made it clear that the cause of the status is due to the company automotive products in the market, there has been slow-moving, take price war behavior in order to boost sales, not only failed to break the ice market, but to expand the company’s financial gap.
3.2.1 .2. Domestic auto peak season for poor performance
According to October data released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, car production of 1.587 million, a decline of 4.48%, up 1.07%; sales 1,606,000, a decline of 0.73%, a year-on-year growth of 5.32%; January to October, automobile production and sales of 1572.01 million and 15,700,700, respectively, year on year growth of 4.56% and 3.56%, compared with the first nine months, production slowed down 0.42 percent, the sales growth rate rose by 0.19 percentage points. Passenger car sales 12,649,500 and 12,571,100, an increase of 7.67% and 6.90%; commercial vehicle sales of 3,070,600, and 3,129,600, down 6.55% and 7.97%, commercial vehicle drag of natural rubber consumption slightly easing, but there are still worries.
The worst performance of the card, the passenger car market in October trucks nonholonomic vehicle sales of 31,700 and 36,000, the production chain fell 9.74%, 4.40% sales growth year-on-year decrease of 8.78% and 3.74%.Semitrailer tractor sales of 15,100 and 15,900, a growth of 17.98% and 19.03%, down 35.44% and 32.39%; 37600 and 33400 of the passenger car production and sales, production rose 0.63 percent, 10.82 percent decline in sales, an increase of 7.78% and 1.42%; nonholonomic passenger vehicle production and sales of 06,300 and 06,400, a decline of 10.56% and 7.90%, down 9.97% and 12.28%.
Figure 7: China passenger car sales data
Figure 8: Chinese commercial vehicle sales data
Source: Association of Automobile Manufacturers in the Futures Research Department
3.2.1 .3. Domestic transport indicator reaction needs to improve slowly
Natural rubber consumption to 70% for the tires, and tire consumption can usually be verified by some transport category indicators, we analyze two indicators data, road passenger, cargo and transport index, data display from the highway passenger volume, while passenger traffic absolute numbers to maintain a steady growth in recent years, but the year-on-year increase was a significant slowdown in the last two years, maintained at 7-9% increase in the level of the third quarter of this year, especially basic close intervals along the low level of about 7.2%, highlighting the road passenger The amount of the performance is relatively poor.
Also last year, the increase in performance is also good, basically maintained at 14-16% increase this year, slightly down to the range of 13-15% increase from the highway freight volume data, not decline, but also shows the freight transport slowdown in the situation.
And from the transport index on a quarterly basis is even more obvious ,09-10 years, has experienced a period of rapid growth, but remain high in 11 years, and more obvious decline in three quarters of this year, the entrepreneur confidence index dropped from 131 to 110 a low level, highlighting the impact of the financial crisis with the still not in the past, and may continue to drag on the improvement of the transport industry.
To sum up several indicators, the performance of the domestic transport growth stagnation, this consumer-oriented steel tire rubber consumption will no doubt continue to form drag.
Figure 9: The domestic highway passenger volume
Figure 10: domestic road freight
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
Figure 11: Domestic transport index
Figure 12: Automotive manufacturing investment
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
3.2.2. International Auto overall weak
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association announced in October this year, car sales data. The month the EU27 market sales fell below the million mark, down 4.8% year-on-year to 959,000, down for 13 consecutive months, the only UK performance is acceptable, the British car production to 148,927 vehicles in October, with year-on-year phase than an increase of 6.4%; 10 months before the British car production reached 1,314,518 units, an increase of 8.4%; commercial vehicles presented annihilated, the main market of the EU commercial vehicle sales fell in October, new car sales of 147,211 vehicles fell 9.4% year-on-year, commercial vehicle sales in Germany fell by 3.8% year on year, the United Kingdom fell by 8.6%, France down 9.8% year-on-year, Spain and Italy fell by 20.4% and 16.4%, respectively, highlighting the weakness in the commercial vehicle overall economic downturn in Europe the trend still not been reversed.
JADA data of the Japan Automobile Dealers Association, car sales in Japan in October of this year to 225,543 vehicles, compared with 247,927 units in October last year, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year; 82% decline in China’s auto.
The biggest highlight of the major economies of the international market is still the United States, the total U.S. light vehicle sales in October to 1.09 million, 1.02 million year-on-year compared with the same period last year increased by 7%, but lower than the industry had generally expected increase, show the U.S. automotive also appears to slow the recovery of the industry.
Comprehensive look at the international market, the automotive industry, the overall performance of the pattern of weak or has not been effectively reversed, just from a single performance in October, the rate of decline has been some improvement, still need further observation As for whether the formation of continuous improvement, at least in Europe short-term market is difficult to see the light, expected in 2013 will continue to be a major drag on the global automobile market.
Figure 13: U.S. auto sales
Figure 14: European commercial vehicle registrations
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
3.2.3. The performance of the tire industry is also significant moderate
This year, moderate growth performance of the domestic automobile tire industry is also a certain drag a single month in recent years, since the domestic rubber tire tire basically remained relatively high at 70-80 million, but the year-on-year growth performance look, but slightly tired, synchronous growth of the first 10 months of this year, only two months of double-digit growth, and the other is under 6%, but also presents a negative growth of 1,8, and the latest in September and October growth is less than 3%, highlighting the the tire production growth is still slow down the situation.
In addition, the export data, Chinese exports of tires growth since the implementation of the special protective case after a gradually declining trend, although can maintain a growth rate of more than 20% in 2010, but the 2011 export growth slowed to 10 % or less, but the average can be maintained at around 8%, but this year’s export growth continued to decline, export averages less than 6%, according to the data of the first 10 months, exports of 31.05 million in October, an increase of only 5.2% growth the speed slowdown pattern has not been reversed, it seems that after the Sept. 26 special protective case, repair exports to the U.S. will take some time.
Comprehensive look at the domestic tire also showed a more moderate, after the end of two years ago, a strong production and export growth momentum in a stable stage, expected the late tire industry re stronger need to look at the degree of macro-economic recovery.
Figure 15: China’s tire production
Figure 16: Chinese tire export volume
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
3.3. Domestic macroeconomic improvement cut pressure
3.3.1. Purchasing and storage is still the largest support
Natural rubber industry as a whole linked list emerged supply elasticity and demand elasticity, due to the growth cycle of the natural rubber supply elasticity, therefore rendering unless the tapping of extreme weather, otherwise the production will maintain a stable growth momentum; therefore in this situation, the impact of demand on prices is even more important, and demand show greater correlation with macroeconomic cycle and the policy side, demand presents greater flexibility, as the financial crisis in 2008 lead to rapid shrinking demand, 2009 global easing coupled with China’s auto industry policy with Chinese natural rubber consumption of leapfrog development, but the current financial crisis is still spreading, industrial policy is significantly reduced, resulting in the demand growth slowing down, also push up the the high inventory status quo front analysis.
Pre rumors the domestic Jiangzai the car to the countryside and other supportive policies, but the time has passed for two months, the policy is still no news, policies to stimulate the automobile industry still seems cautious; the consumer end policy expectations are high, stable days the rubber price hope to count on the tightening of the supply-side, in Southeast Asia in October to cut exports of 300,000 tons and the Thai government to increase the purchasing and storage of 300,000 tons, is undoubtedly a direct boost to the market; However, the Thai government to the current total of 10 months before purchasing and storage of 170,000 tons, purchasing and storage of progress is too slow, while exports to cut to execute two months, it seems that the actual effect is not ideal; Therefore, the the late Chinese government whether increase Shouchu efforts will be key, pre- rumors State Reserve purchasing and storage will be 15-20 million tons, purchasing and storage 60,000 tons before the end of the year, but did not get official recognition, but also makes the domestic impact of purchasing and storage weak in Thailand, purchasing and storage, from the current level of inventory purchasing and storage to cooperate in order to ease the pressure of the social stock and consumption situation, I am afraid, as a strategic reserve materials and natural rubber, the State Reserve of the second quarter of 2010 had done two batches of a total of 60,000 tons of inventory auction transaction price of 24,000 – 25000, after the State Reserve has not replenishment, and the current price is also lower than the original price of the auction, and there are also purchasing and storage needs from the industry’s point of view, therefore, the latter part of the domestic purchasing and storage is a key factor will be the short-term support prices.
3.3.2. Domestic macroeconomic improvement cut pressure
GDP year-on-year in the third quarter of macroeconomic data continue to decline to 7.4%, is the 11th consecutive quarter of growth fell, before the third quarter GDP growth down to 7.7%, but the macro data also showed some positive signals, September industrial added value growth picked up 0.3 percentage points to 9.2%, PMI data is two consecutive months, a rebound in the latest official October PMI back above the 50 watershed reached 50.2, overall economic point of view, to the inventory of the basic end of the current economic The short-term bottoming is more uncertain. Latest HSBC announced November PMI initial value return to the ups and downs of above the line 50.4, which is 47.6 since August bottoming rebound in the first three months, the manufacturing sector overall situation showed some improvement, although the economy has stabilized, not yet showing a clear upward trend on the market a boost force is still limited, but a drag on factors still play a moderating role.
Figure 17: China’s official PMI
Figure 18: HSBC PMI
Source: WIND Securities Futures Research Department
4. December outlook line information
Recalling the point of view of the four quarterly reports, policies and seasonal formation of a joint force, natural rubber bottom basically established, is expected to form the focus of the shock on the Move. From the current situation, because the policy boost the force has been weakened, while the poor seasonal performance, increasing pressure on the stock, the expected quarterly results weaken, therefore, it is expected that the fourth quarter ending January I’m afraid The expectations are not too high.
Specific analysis of the impact of factors from the front to see the maximum pressure of the market in December, still from high natural rubber stocks, domestic automobile production and sales season in the 4 quarter and no evident, especially economic weakness inhibition of the commercial vehicle is still sluggish form drag, while the international market the automotive industry as a whole is still weak, and therefore lead to the stock will continue to form a situation to continue high, the pressure of the market is difficult to eliminate.
Largest market expectations or macroeconomic recovery and industrial policy to boost the domestic economy showed steady, but the short term is difficult to have a clear upward trend, easing pressure on the environment for the market as a whole, but it is difficult to form a boost force; therefore industrial policy is the greatest expectations in November, domestic purchasing and storage is not too clear, but it is expected late will be more concerned about the purchasing and storage news, Southeast Asia is expected in December, but also a meeting to discuss the stable Jiaojia problem, they might develop a certain boost, but the ability to form a more substantial bullish in December is still difficult to determine.
Comprehensive look at the poor seasonal performance, natural rubber high inventories become the focus of the market, and the formation of a significant pressure, but the domestic economy has stabilized or bring some support, In addition, there are also some bullish expectations industrial policy, as well as global easing of liquidity has brought inflation expectations, so the overall look, natural rubber pressure still exists, but it would not be pessimistic. Is expected to wrap up in December to continue to maintain the shock probability trading range between 23000-26000 yuan.
China Natural rubber market in November (part 1)
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/20/11670.html
