On Monday, the sudden limit Shanghai market prices had disrupted the market vulnerable “grind” rhythm. In the absence of other industrial prices rose background synchronization, “independent” daily limit of natural rubber market is particularly unexpected. The author believes that the recent deterioration in Sino-Vietnamese relations is an incentive to limit lead to gum market prices appear subsequently continued to expand market rally will have to see whether imported or not to reduce the pressure on the supply side.
Vietnam is the world’s fourth largest exporter of natural rubber, in 2013 the country’s natural rubber production reached 980,000 tons, is expected to surpass Malaysia as the world’s third largest producer of natural rubber. China is Vietnam’s largest export market for rubber. 2013 China imported about 300,000 tons of rubber from Vietnam directly, and more Vietnamese plastic flows into the Chinese market through other channels.According to the statistics of Vietnam, the country has about Qi Cheng rubber eventually exported to China. Yin Nanhai storm, from the anti-Vietnam marches, upgrade to vandalism burning foreign and Chinese staff resulted in casualties, China has made large-scale withdrawal of staff action. Terms of trade between China and Vietnam has become an established fact worsen, which will undoubtedly affect the normal rubber trade between China and Vietnam to. Even if Vietnam can export rubber to China via a third-party channels, but this will increase trading costs, weakening export advantage Vietnamese rubber. The deterioration of the domestic investment environment in Vietnam, will further affect the normal production of Vietnamese rubber. Therefore, the impact of this event on rubber prices will not only be a short-term impact.
From the domestic supply data, January-April, China imported a total of 1.58 million tons of rubber, and last year was 138 million tons, up 200,000 tons. Among them, the import of 1.06 million tons of natural rubber, natural rubber imports from January to April year on year increase of 20 million tons. In other words, as imports of Chinese rubber market growth in April almost entirely from natural rubber. This is the deep influence of factors led all the way down Jiaojia. Throughout 2013 the annual imports of natural rubber structure, in which the annual growth in imports 300,000 tons, and imports about 200,000 tons in increments of 1-4 months, and then only from May to December of imported 100,000 increments ton. The same period, the price of rubber market performance in 2013 is significantly better in the second half of the first half. 2014, China’s natural rubber imports increased scale if it can be maintained at less than 30 million tons, then the supply pressure in the second half of the domestic natural rubber market will be significantly improved compared to the first half.
From a cost perspective, to 60 baht / kg conversion, China’s imports of natural rubber bottom line costs about 13,500 yuan / ton. Shanghai at 13,600 yuan / ton in the vicinity of the support out of the limit price, then the gain or loss in the current rubber prices continued short position than the already do not have the obvious advantage. If the inlet pressure is further reduced, then the probability of rubber prices rally out of the middle class, or are reversed on this bottom will be greatly improved.
In short, I believe that the value of 14000-14500 Shanghai have to buy yuan / ton area, a stop can be set at 13,800 yuan / ton.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/20856.html
