MARKET COMMENTARY
A rebound in natural rubber prices is being witnessed in the overseas market on Thursday, bolstered by an upbeat economic indicator from China. HSBC China manufacturing PMI released earlier today showed manufacturing activity rising to 18-month high. TOCOM rubber futures rose about a per cent as a positive data induced optimism over demand from the top consumer.
In the local market, the commodity continued to be in the stranglehold of bears. RSS4 in the physical market was hovering near Rs.139 a kg, while on NMCE prices slipped to hit its weakest level since early June. Overall activity in the market remained sluggish as off-take from the tyre sector remained meagre while arrivals were low too owing to unattractive prices.
MARKET NEWS
⊳ Stockpiles monitored by Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1095 tonnes to 152879 tonnes last week.
⊳ Indonesia’s natural rubber production is seen at 3.2 million tonnes in 2014 compared to 3.1 million tonnes produced last year according to the country’s Agricultural Ministry.
⊳ Natural rubber imports during the first six months of 2014 rose 58 per cent to 1.61 lakh tonnes.
⊳ Kerala State Finance Minister says Rs.10 crore have been enmarked to procure natural rubber and likely to pay Rs.5 per kg more than the daily domestic market price of rubber.
⊳ Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber trading hub, drop to 239,000 mt from 250,300 mt as of June 30, according to Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.
⊳ The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries’ 7th Annual Rubber Conference to be held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 13th October 2014.
⊳ Malaysian NR imports down 7.8 per cent in May to 59486 tonnes on MoM basis.
⊳Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses fell 1.6 percent to 20,874 metric tons on June 30, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Aug NMCE
With 13800 being held downside, mild short covering may be witnessed towards 14050-14100 levels initially or more to 14260 ranges. Alternatively a direct fall below 13800 may strengthen weakness, possibly towards 13700-13500.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 13950/14050 | 14400-14050-13800 | 13800/13700 |
| 14160/14260 | 13500/13400 | |
| 14320/14450 | 13200-13100 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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