Since mid-June, 1409 PP futures contracts into a high point of 11,532 yuan / ton, the low of 10,835 yuan / ton range oscillation order, and gradually evolved into a symmetrical triangle pattern. Currently, the 1409 contract price is at the apex of the triangle position, direction selection is already approaching the critical point.
Into July, before repair equipment back into production, operating rate returned to normal levels. Currently Sichuan Petrochemical production capacity 450,000 tons of equipment due to failure on the 22nd from temporary parking, Formosa Ningbo line capacity 280,000 tons of equipment failure due to short-term parking, Datang Duolun second-tier production capacity of 250,000 tons due to lack of material means stop. In addition, only Bayview petrochemical production capacity of 200,000 tonnes device is arranged in the normal maintenance parking. Lost production in July relative to 4,5,6 equipment maintenance is significantly reduced in the past three months, the monthly production of polypropylene recovery is also reasonable.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, due to the centralized maintenance, in April this year, the domestic polypropylene monthly production of about 1.08 million tons, compared to March decline; 5 per month increased slightly, about 1.09 million tons; June due to pre- Equipment basically complete overhaul, polypropylene production quickly rose to 1.137 million tons, production of basic and January was flat.
Taking into account the number of new capacity in July began to focus on production, expected in July to increase domestic polypropylene production will maintain momentum. New capacity, the coal chemical production capacity on stage.
May, Shenhua Ningxia Coal production capacity of 500,000 tons of two pelletizing project success into July, second-line officially put into production 1102K. Extend the production capacity of 300,000 tons of coal tier devices to drive success in early July, the normal production T30S. The first batch of about 1,750 tons of test material in the recent auction cheap western Shanghai Stock Exchange Trade Center site, all transactions. To this end, the futures market polypropylene contracts to close out a big line that day, down more than 1%. The line production capacity of 300,000 tons catalytic cracker unit was not successful due to open, resulting in polypropylene unit in the parking state. Yulin coal production capacity of 300,000 tons of devices now able to produce qualified propylene monomer, and polypropylene plant is in the commissioning phase, plans to conduct a trial run in August. In addition, Shijiazhuang Refining capacity of 200,000 tons of new devices also planned in August to drive.
On the whole, there will be 7-8 months 1.6 million tons of new capacity to drive production. However, capacity is not exactly the same yield. The new drive unit, personnel, equipment are not particularly stable, and therefore can not be fully released capacity in the short term, the supply of new markets will not be much. However, it can be concluded that the supply and demand for polypropylene has been quietly turning point. In addition, the current production capacity, the 1.4 million tons of coal chemical production capacity of 1.3 million tons of their domestic coal chemical polypropylene production capacity more than doubled, to 2.7 million tons a direct upgrade. As a result, coal chemical influence on the polypropylene market will be greatly enhanced.
In summary, although the short term, the supply of polypropylene will not significantly increase, but due to the current coal chemical polypropylene profits are in the best period, coal chemical industry will definitely try to come out as soon as the production release, so you need to pay close attention related to the number listed on the company’s products.It is for this reason that we believe will complete the transition from polypropylene rally to down market in the next period of time.
Translated by Google Translator from http://market.cria.org.cn/25/22261.html
