MARKET COMMENTARY
Following an initial fall, NMCE rubber futures bounced back on Wednesday while RSS4 in the physical market stretched its losses. Despite a brief bounce back, overall market sentiments stayed feeble tracking moves in the overseas market amidst muted demand from the tyre sector. While, sharp plunges in the overseas market raised the prospects of further rise in imports, peak production season is approaching too, which could see supply improving adding further to the woes. In the meantime, natural rubber prices in the overseas market are extending losses on Thursday. TOCOM rubber futures declined and the benchmark February rubber futures is hovering near the five year low though weak yen lend support to the falling prices. SHFE as well as AFET rubber futures moved south too.
MARKET NEWS
⊳India’s Commerce Minister says national policy on rubber is being formulated and a stakeholders meeting will be organised soon on issues concerning the rubber industry.
⊳ According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics natural rubber production in Thailand is likely to rise to 4.58 million tonnes from 4.38 million tonnes as tapping area increased in the country’s north and north-eastern provinces.
⊳ Rubber growers plan to disrupt production and shipment of top exporters in response to price slump says Perk Lertwangpong, president of Rubber Holders Cooperatives Federation of Thailand.
⊳ India’s natural rubber production in August declined 26 per cent to 51000 tonnes on year on year basis while consumption registered a rise of 4.2 per cent to 85000 tonnes. Imports declined as well to 42499 tonnes compared to 43221 tonnes imported during the same period last year.
⊳Thailand to increase area in which it will cut down aging trees by 33% to 400,000 rai (64,000 hectares) a year in season starting Oct., says Prasit Meadsen, acting director of Office of the Rubber Replanting Aid Fund.
⊳ Thailand’s Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives to lend 15 billion bhat to rubber farmer groups to build stockpiles and increase processing.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Oct NMCE
With support at 11450 being held downside, a rebound was seen in the previous session. However, such up-moves were held near 11970 and a retreat was witnessed thereof. Now, even as the broad trend still stays weak, a break out from the either the side of 11970- 11450 range is required to provide directions.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 11800/11970 | 11970-11450 | 11570/11450 |
| 12100/12250 | 11350/11250 | |
| 12340/12500 | 11100/11050 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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