MARKET COMMENTARY
⊳ Sentiments were feeble in the Indian natural rubber market last week. RSS4 in the physical as well as in the futures segment hit multi-year lows tracking steep declines in the overseas natural rubber market amidst subdued off-take from the tyre sector even as arrivals to the market thinned out. Worries that supply may increase with the peak production phase approaching weighed on the overall market sentiments though speculations that import duty may be altered sent some relief.
⊳ As the week’s session commences, natural rubber prices are seen stretching the previous session gains though movements are subdued as the trend setting TOCOM exchange remained closed on account of Respect for the Aged Day. However, concerns over demand from the top consumer China weighed on the overall market sentiments. Disappointing industrial production data from China released last weekend raised worries over the economic progress.
MARKET NEWS
⊳ Thai rubber farmers defer planned protest after minister offers talks.
⊳ Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 100 tonnes to 166248 tonnes last week.
⊳India’s Commerce Minister says national policy on rubber is being formulated and a stakeholders meeting will be organised soon on issues concerning the rubber industry.
⊳ According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics NR production in Thailand is likely to rise to 4.58 million tonnes from 4.38 million tonnes as tapping area increased in the country’s north and north-eastern provinces.
⊳ Rubber growers plan to disrupt production and shipment of top exporters in response to price slump says president of Rubber Holders Cooperatives Federation of Thailand.
⊳ India’s NR production in August declined 26% to 51000 tonnes on YoY basis while consumption registered a rise of 4.2% to 85000 tonnes. Imports declined as well to 42499 tonnes compared to 43221 tonnes imported during the same period last year.
⊳Thailand to increase area in which it will cut down aging trees by 33% to 64,000 hectares a year in season starting Oct., says Prasit Meadsen, acting director of Office of the Rubber Replanting Aid Fund.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Oct NMCE
It is mandatory to clear and sustain above 11970 to stretch the up-moves probably towards 12100/12250 or more. Else, it may again succumb to higher level selling and could revisit to recent lows or more.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 11970/12100 | 12500-11970-11450 | 11820/11650 |
| 12250/12340 | 11550/11450 | |
| 12500/12650 | 11350/11250 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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