MARKET COMMENTARY
⊳ Despite broad weakness, natural rubber in the Indian market are seen rebounding after the recent sharp plunges. Scanty arrivals to the market coupled with positive moves in the overseas market probably bolstered the sentiments though subdued off-take from the tyre sector capped gains. On Monday, the benchmark October rubber futures on NMCE gained more than 1.5 per cent while in the physical market, the RSS4 was quoted around Rs.132 a kg.
⊳ TOCOM exchange reopened today after an extended weekend holiday and rubber futures are seen inching up. Most active February rubber futures on TOCOM rose more than one per cent to hit a one week high supported by a weaker yen and on worries that supplies from the top producer Thailand may decline as prices have slumped to multi year lows. SHFE rubber futures is seen stretching gains too while AFET rubber futures dipped.
MARKET NEWS
⊳ Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber-trading hub, fell to 192,200 mt yday from 217,400 mt on Aug. 29, according to Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.
⊳ Vietnam’s rubber exports rises 12 per cent to 113922 tonnes in August on MoM basis according to the nation’s General Customs Department.
⊳ Thai rubber farmers defer planned protest after minister offers talks.
⊳ Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 100 tonnes to 166248 tonnes last week.
⊳India’s Commerce Minister says national policy on rubber is being formulated and a stakeholders meeting will be organised soon on issues concerning the rubber industry.
⊳ According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics NR production in Thailand is likely to rise to 4.58 million tonnes from 4.38 million tonnes as tapping area increased in the country’s north and north-eastern provinces.
⊳ India’s NR production in August declined 26% to 51000 tonnes on YoY basis while consumption registered a rise of 4.2% to 85000 tonnes. Imports declined as well to 42499 tonnes compared to 43221 tonnes imported during the same period last year.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Oct NMCE
The momentum witnessed in the previous session is likely to continue once it clears the immediate upside hurdle of 12250. However, for such rise, 12500 may possibly act as a strong resistance from where a turnaround could be anticipated. Alternatively, a direct fall below 11900 will again strengthen weakness.
TURNAROUND
|
Resistances |
LEVELS | Supports |
|
12250/12340 |
12500-11900 | 12060/11900 |
| 12500/12650 |
11820/11650 |
|
| 12740/12860 |
11550/11450 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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