MARKET COMMENTARY
⊳ While the broad trend stays weak, sentiments were muddled in the Indian natural rubber market on Monday. In the physical market, RSS4 was seen inching up as supplies thinned out. Gains witnessed in the overseas market supported the sentiments too. However, further rises were restricted as the commodity in the futures market retreated. NMCE rubber futures dropped more than 2.5 per cent after rising for the last three consecutive sessions. Concerns over demand continued to haunt the markets.
⊳ In the overseas market on Tuesday, natural rubber is seen stretching gains. TOCOM rubber futures inched up and so were SHFE and AFET rubber futures. Reports that China injected $81.4 billion into top banks to boost the economic growth and rise in crude oil prices improved the sentiments. However, worries over oversupply still persisted.
MARKET NEWS
⊳ Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber-trading hub, fell to 192,200 mt yday from 217,400 mt on Aug. 29, according to Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.
⊳ Vietnam’s rubber exports rises 12 per cent to 113922 tonnes in August on MoM basis according to the nation’s General Customs Department.
⊳ Thai rubber farmers defer planned protest after minister offers talks.
⊳ Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE rose 100 tonnes to 166248 tonnes last week.
⊳India’s Commerce Minister says national policy on rubber is being formulated and a stakeholders meeting will be organised soon on issues concerning the rubber industry.
⊳ According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics NR production in Thailand is likely to rise to 4.58 million tonnes from 4.38 million tonnes as tapping area increased in the country’s north and north-eastern provinces.
⊳ India’s NR production in August declined 26% to 51000 tonnes on YoY basis while consumption registered a rise of 4.2% to 85000 tonnes. Imports declined as well to 42499 tonnes compared to 43221 tonnes imported during the same period last year.
TECHNICAL VIEW
RUBBER Oct NMCE
With the breach of 11900 downside, weakness persists and sustained trades below 11820 could take prices towards 11700 regions from where a bounce back seems possible. However, slippage past the same opens the possibility of a fall to recent lows or more. On the other side, it is necessary to clear 12250 for further upsides.
TURNAROUND
| Resistances | LEVELS | Supports |
| 11950/12150 | 12250-11700 | 11820/11650 |
| 12250/12340 | 11550/11450 | |
| 12500/12650 | 11350/11200 |
Source: Geojit Comtrade
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