[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: September 23, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

RSS4 in the Indian market were seen declining on Monday. In the spot market, RSS4 grade rubber dipped to Rs.123.50 a kg while on NMCE the grade lost ground, shedding nearly three per cent. Steep plunges witnessed in the major international natural rubber market coupled with poor demand pressurized prices to move south despite thin supplies to the market. In the meantime, in the overseas market on Tuesday, the commodity is seen stretching previous session losses with SHFE rubber futures dropping more than 2.5 per cent on persisting concerns over demand from China. Even as manufacturing PMI data from China rose unexpectedly in September, worries over fall in employment kept alive the worries over economic growth in the world’s largest economy. The trend setting TOCOM exchange remained closed on account of Autumnal Equinox Day today.

MARKET NEWS

⊳ Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE declined one per cent to 164841 tonnes last week.

Oil Prices Jump Over 1% On Delayed Opec+ Output Hike

⊳ Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber-trading hub, fell to 192,200 mt yday from 217,400 mt on Aug. 29, according to Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.

⊳ The Thai government has approved 30 billion baht ($931 million) in soft loans for cooperatives and companies to use to buy rubber from farmers as a way of propping up prices.

⊳ Vietnam’s rubber exports rises 12 per cent to 113922 tonnes in August on MoM basis according to the nation’s General Customs Department.

⊳India’s Commerce Minister says national policy on rubber is being formulated and a stakeholders meeting will be organised soon on issues concerning the rubber industry.

⊳ According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics NR production in Thailand is likely to rise to 4.58 million tonnes from 4.38 million tonnes as tapping area increased in the country’s north and north-eastern provinces.

⊳ India’s NR production in August declined 26% to 51000 tonnes on YoY basis while consumption registered a rise of 4.2% to 85000 tonnes. Imports declined as well to 42499 tonnes compared to 43221 tonnes imported during the same period last year.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Oct NMCE

With slippage past 11800, weakness persists and is likely to continue towards 11650 or more to 11450, which if held downside could call for a bounce back. Alternatively, a direct rise past 12050 could lift prices towards 12250 but it is mandatory to sustain above the same for further rise.

TURNAROUND