[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: September 24, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

⊳ A mixed trend was witnessed in the local natural rubber market on Wednesday. In the physical market, RSS4 extended losses and was quoted around Rs.122 a kg, while on NMCE, the grade ended in green following an initial fall. Overall market sentiments continue to be feeble as demand stays subdued amidst steep declines in the overseas market. However restricted arrivals to the market lend some support.

⊳ On Thursday, natural rubber took a pause from the recent steep declines. Following an initial fall towards five and a half year lows, TOCOM rubber futures were seen paring initial losses. SHFE and AFET rubber futures rose as well from the multi year lows. While worries over economic growth in China continues to haunt the market amidst oversupply, comments from the Thai Agriculture Ministry official that the government was likely to postpone the sale of remaining stockpiles may have probably soothed the sentiments.

MARKET NEWS

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⊳ The Thai government has postponed the sale of its remaining 100,000 tonnes of rubber stocks to avoid further depressing prices according to a senior Agriculture Ministry official.

⊳ International Rubber Consortium sees natural rubber production declining in 2014 by 2.3 per cent to 11.8 million tonnes while stockpiles are seen around 2.3-2.5 million tonnes.

⊳ Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE declined one per cent to 164841 tonnes last week.

⊳ Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber-trading hub, fell to 192,200 mt yday from 217,400 mt on Aug. 29, according to Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.

⊳ The Thai government has approved 30 billion baht ($931 million) in soft loans for cooperatives and companies to use to buy rubber from farmers as a way of propping up prices.

⊳ Vietnam’s rubber exports rises 12 per cent to 113922 tonnes in August on MoM basis according to the nation’s General Customs Department.

⊳India’s Commerce Minister says national policy on rubber is being formulated and a stakeholders meeting will be organised soon on issues concerning the rubber industry.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Oct NMCE

The bounce back witnessed in the previous session following a fall to 11600 is likely to stretch and successful trades above 12050 could see a rise towards recent high or more. Unanticipated fall below 11450 will intensify bearishness.

TURNAROUND