Russia holds rates at 7.5%, cautions on inflationary effects of mobilisation

By Alexander Marrow

MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia’s central bank held its key interest rate at 7.5% on Friday, cautioning that expectations of price rises had grown and that Russia’s partial mobilisation could stoke longer term inflation due to a shrinking labour force.

In the immediate aftermath of Moscow sending its armed forces into Ukraine on Feb. 24, the central bank hiked its key rate to 20% from 9.5% in order to mitigate risks to financial stability.

Since then it has cut rates six times and omitted forward-looking guidance at its previous meeting in September about studying the need for future reductions.

The rate hold was in line with a consensus forecast of analysts polled by Reuters earlier this week.

“Inflation expectations of households and businesses are high and have slightly grown relative to the summer months,” the bank said in a statement.

“While the partial mobilisation may mainly create disinflationary pressure in the coming months due to subdued consumer demand, its subsequent effects will be pro-inflationary as it adds to supply-side restrictions in the broader economy.”

President Vladimir Putin ordered a “partial mobilisation” last month for the military campaign in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of men have been called up to the army or fled abroad since Sept. 21.

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, dressed in black with a dab of floral print, said that the bank wanted to give a neutral signal to the market on rates.

Mobilisation, she said, would initially be disinflationary.

“But then pro-inflationary effects may appear through changes in the structure of the labour market, a shortage of personnel in certain areas,” Nabiullina said. “It is still difficult to assess all the economic consequences of the shift in employment structure.”

INFLATION

Inflation, which the central bank targets at 4%, stood at 12.9% as of Oct. 24, according to the economy ministry. The central bank tweaked its year-end inflation forecast to 12-13% from 11-13%.

“According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, given the monetary policy stance, annual inflation will drop to 5.0–7.0% in 2023 to return to 4% in 2024.”

Analysts at VTB My Investments said the regulator’s signal remained neutral.

“We do not expect key rate changes in the coming months, but at the same time we see pro-inflationary factors dominating the horizon for a year,” they said in a note.

The central bank is caught in a bind between high inflation, which dents living standards and has for years been one of Russians’ main concerns, and an economy in need of stimulation in the form of cheaper credit to address the negative effects of sweeping Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

The central bank improved its GDP forecast for this year to a contraction of 3-3.5% from an expected 4-6% decline previously. In late April, it had expected GDP to shrink 8-10%.

The bank forecasts a further contraction in 2023 before GDP returns to growth in 2024-25.

The next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for Dec. 16.

Source: Investing.com