[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: October 8, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

⊳ On Tuesday, zigzag moves in tight ranges were witnessed in the local natural rubber market. NMCE rubber futures ended in green, up about 0.8 per cent following an initial fall. While the broad trend stayed bearish, sentiments seems to be muddled in the local natural rubber market. Even as worries over demand, burgeoning imports and decline in natural rubber prices in the international market bothering the market, concerns over supply and slow down in tapping activity in the major natural rubber growing areas in Kerala is probably keeping further declines in prices under check. In the meantime, on Wednesday, SHFE reopened after a weeklong National Day holiday and rubber futures on the bourse was seen rebounding following an initial fall. A similar trend is being witnessed on TOCOM too as Vietnam too supported the move to not to sell rubber below $1500/mt.

MARKET NEWS

⊳ The Vietnam Rubber Association “strongly” advises members not to sell commodity below $1,500/mt, the International Rubber Consortium says on website.

Rubber price hike rejoices cultivators; irks manufactures

⊳ Top natural rubber producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to meet next week in Malaysia to seek measures to prop up prices.

⊳ ANRPC says natural rubber production among its member countries to rise 0.1 per cent in 2014 to 11.18 million tonnes.

⊳ Rubber exports from Thailand declined 1.5 per cent to 259674 tonnes in August on YoY basis.

⊳ Indonesian Rubber Association is seeking to put a floor under prices at $1.5 a kg and has written and sent circulars to its members not to sell rubber is prices plunges below the same.

⊳ India’s Commerce Minister promises to address the problems faced by the rubber growers including imports of natural rubber and added that National Policy on Rubber will be formulated soon.

⊳Vietnam rubber exports in August stood at 114000 tonnes and 13300 tonnes is anticipated to be exported in September according to nation’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

⊳ The Thai government has postponed the sale of its remaining 100,000 tonnes of rubber stocks to avoid further depressing prices according to a senior Agriculture Ministry official.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Nov NMCE

While range bound moves inside 11600-12300 are in progress and requires a breakout from either the sides for further directional moves, for the day, mild upsides are likely and a break above 12100 with volume could call for 12300. Unanticipated fall below 11800 will again induce weakness.

TURNAROUND