[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: October 15, 2014

MARKET COMMENTARY

⊳ Moves by the Kerala State government to raise the procurement price amidst falling production improved the sentiments in the local natural rubber market on Wednesday. In the physical market, RSS4 grade rubber edged up to Rs.123 a kg while the on NMCE, the commodity culminated the session more than one per cent high. However, lingering worries over demand and apprehensions over the procurement moves by the government weighed on.

⊳In the international market on Thursday, natural rubber prices are in red. TOCOM rubber futures inched lower tracking declines in equities as investors grew wary of global economic growth. Lacklusture economic data releases from China and the US intensified worries over global economic slowdown. Strengthening yen weighed on too.

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⊳ Inventories in Qingdao, China’s main rubber-trading hub, fell to 143,800 mt as of Oct. 14 from 154,100 mt on Sept. 26, according to e Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market.

⊳ Kerala Government decides to procure rubber from farmers at Rs.5 higher than the market rate and also to meet the Prime Minister to appraise the current situation in the rubber market in order to urge the latter to take necessary action.

⊳ According to Rubber Board, India’s natural rubber imports in September dropped 12.6 percent from a year earlier to 41,848 tonnes, while production plunged by a quarter to 60,000 tonnes due to higher rains in key producing regions. Consumption rose 6.1 per cent 85500 tonnes on YoY basis.

⊳ Crude rubber inventories in the Japanese ports stood at 13910tonnes as of Sep 30, down 2.4 per cent from 10 days ago according to Rubber Trade Association of Japan.

⊳ Rubber output from Thailand unlikely to rise beyond 4.0million tonnes in 2014 according to Thai Rubber Association.

⊳ In the recently held meeting of the International Rubber Consortium in Melaka, top natural rubber producing countries pledges to bolster prices and urges members not to sell below current levels.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Nov NMCE

While some upside moves were witnessed in the previous session, it is mandatory to break and sustain above 12300 with volume to continue the upward journey. Else range bound moves inside 12300- 11750 is likely.

TURNAROUND