[Geojit Comtrade] Daily report on Natural Rubber: December 13, 2012

MARKET COMMENTARY

Natural rubber in the Indian market firm up further on Wednesday supported by improving demand amidst lower supplies. In the physical market, quotes for RSS4 inched higher to Rs.164/kg to its highest in about a week. According to sources, even as there was demand from the tyre sector, arrivals were limited probably owing to expectation of better prices. In NMCE, rubber futures advanced for the fourth successive session. The most active January rubber futures gained about 0.7 per cent. Firming natural rubber prices in the overseas market supported the sentiments too.
On Thursday, in the international scenario, rubber prices in TOCOM exchange is seen trading mostly flat near its two month high supported by a weaker yen while SHFE and AFET rubber futures inched down. Despite US Federal Reserve announcing stimulus measures, deadlock existing over US budget deal punctured the overall market sentiments, capping gains. Also, top three natural rubber producing countries refraining from taking any new measures to bolster natural rubber prices weighed on too.

TECHNICAL VIEW

The world’s top three rubber producers have agreed to keep up a policy of cutting exports, but see no need for additional steps to support prices, according to a senior Thai government official.
India’s natural rubber imports in November jumped 41 percent from year ago to 22,748 tonnes as lower prices in overseas markets prompted tyre makers to raise imports. The output during the month eased to 93,500 tonnes from 94,400 as heavy rainfall in top producing Kerala state hurt tapping for few days, it said.
According to Thai Rubber Association, natural rubber exports from the country is seen rising only 3.0-5.0 per cent in the next year.
Crude rubber stockpiles held at Japanese warehouses fell 5.1 percent to 6,186 metric tons on Nov. 30 from ten days before, according to data from the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.
According to SIAM, while total sales of vehicles registered a growth of 1.79 per cent in November, passenger car sales dropped 8.5 per cent owing to high interest rates and fuel prices and other macro-economic factors.

TECHNICAL VIEW

RUBBER Jan NMCE

Even as prices breached the resistance of 16860 in the previous session, it lacked vigour to showcase a solid rise and edged lower, trimming initial gains. Yet, it looks as if some more upsides are in store though a dip probably towards 16660/16500 seems possible before resuming rising. Slippage past 16400 may lessen the prevailing mild positive bias.

Source: Geojit Comtrade

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