MARKET COMMENTARY
Positive moves are being witnessed in natural rubber in the international market. On Thursday, the commodity is seen stretching gains tracking a rebound in crude oil and other industrial commodities. TOCOM rubber futures inched higher to a one month high. Weakening yen too lend support. In the mean time, RSS4 in the Indian market had ended the session in green on Wednesday. In the physical market, the grade was quoted higher around Rs.115 a kg while on NMCE, the benchmark January rubber futures ended more than two per cent up. Even as subdued demand and higher imports weighed on overall market sentiments, decline in domestic natural rubber production, up-moves in the overseas market along with narrowing spread between natural rubber prices in the major international market buoyed prices. Also, trades are looking forwards to the meeting convened by the Kerala Chief Minister with the major tyre companies
MARKET NEWS
⊳Natural rubber production in India in November declined 25 per cent on year on year basis to 64000 tonnes while consumption and imports rose 12 per cent and 19 per cent to 85000 tonnes and 33156 tonnes respectively.
⊳China to raise the cap for rubber import tariff to 1500yuan a tonne from the present 1200 yuan a tonne with effect from January 01.
⊳Kerala chief minister Oommen Chandy has convened on December 18 a crucial meeting with the major tyre companies, in a frantic effort to prop the domestic natural rubber price.
⊳Indian Rubber Growers Association has urged an urgent intervention of the state and the central government to initiate steps to save rubber growers. In the mean time, the growers association comprising UPASI, APK, IRGA etc have filed a petition under the Provisions of Safeguard before the Directorate of Safeguards, New Delhi to protect the domestic rubber growers from un-controlled and unrestricted imports.
⊳Kerala State Finance Minister in a letter to the Union Commerce Minister has sought Rs.1000 crore from the Center’s Price Stabilization Fund to provide relief to the rubber growers.
⊳Malaysian Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister says Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are doing what it takes to ensure production does not exceed current world demand for rubber and urged ANRPC members to hold a ministerial level meeting.
⊳Rubber inventories in the warehouses monitored by SHFE 5.7 per cent 147721 tonnes last week.
⊳Thai government and at least 7 exporting companies plan to form fund worth more than 400m baht to buy rubber on Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand according to PongsakKerdvongbundit, managing director of Von Bundit.
TECHNICAL COMMENTRY
RUBBER Jan NMCE
With a close above 11560, sentiments has improved and as long as this level holds downside, the buying momentum being witnessed could extend to 11650 or more to 11850. Even in this positive scenario, dips to 11480 cannot be ruled out. However slippage past 11300 will again induce weakness
Source: Geofin Comtrade
