Informist, Monday, Jan 2, 2023
By Kabir Sharma
MUMBAI – The rupee ended the first trading session of the year largely unchanged as it erased intraday gains against the dollar, after banks bought the US unit on behalf of importers and oil companies, dealers said.
“Rupee continues to remain in the range of 82.50 to 83.00 with oil sitting at one end and RBI at the other end,” a dealer with a brokerage firm said.
After moving in a range of 18 paise throughout the day, the rupee settled at 82.7375 a dollar as against 82.7200 on Friday.
The rupee opened slightly higher against the dollar and rose to the day’s high of 82.55 a dollar due to a broad weakness in the greenback, dealers said.
The dollar index touched a seven-month low on Friday as Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index showed a contraction in the manufacturing activity for a fourth month in a row. Chicago PMI came at 44.9 in December as against 37.2 in November.
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.52 on Friday. It was at 103.78 on Thursday.
A rise in domestic equities also supported the rupee. Both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 0.5% higher.
However, crude oil prices rose around 3%, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. A rise in year-end travel in the US and the ban by Russia on supply of crude to countries that implement the price cap, pushed the crude prices up.
Volumes in the currency market were muted today due to holiday at major financial markets. Financial markets in the US, the UK, Japan, China, and Australia are closed for the observation of New Year’s Day.
“There is not much happening and I expect nothing major to happen before the release of US employment data,” a dealer with a big state-owned bank said.
Traders now look forward to the US Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting minutes, slated for release on Thursday, and crucial employment data that is scheduled to be released on Friday.
FORWARDS
Premiums on dollar/rupee one-year forward contract ended lower today tracking a rise in US yields on Friday, dealers said.
Lack of dollar purchases by the Reserve Bank of India, which has been on a paying spree in the forwards segment during the last one week, also weighed on the premiums, dealers said.
“The premiums were slightly lower at 2.00% as it continued to trend towards interest rate differential between dollar and rupee with RBI not paying in the forwards,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors.
US Treasury yields rose 4 basis points on Friday as investors braced for the New Year with worries about a potential recession and the Fed’s rate hike path.
Premiums on forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was 163.98 paise, against 166.02 paise on Friday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 1.98%, against the previous close of 2.01%.
OUTLOOK
On Tuesday, the Indian unit will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index and Brent crude oil prices as the market will re-open, dealers said.
“The rupee will see some movement tomorrow as the US market re-opens after the holiday week but I still expect it to be in a narrow range and not break 82.90,” a dealer with a big state-owned bank said.
Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 83.00 a dollar. The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.60-83.00 a dollar, dealers said.
India Rupee: Erase gains as banks buy dollars for importers
NEW DELHI – The rupee erased gains against the greenback after rising initially as banks rushed to buy the US dollar on behalf of importers and oil marketing companies, dealers said. “There’s importers’ buying (of dollars) at around 82.65-82.66 (a dollar) level. The volumes are muted,” a dealer from a state-owned bank said.
Volumes in the currency market was muted on account of holiday at major financial markets. The financial markets in the US, the UK, Japan, China, and Australia are closed on account of New Year’s Day.
Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 82.90 a dollar.
The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.50-82.90 a dollar, dealers said. (Ananya Chaudhuri)
India Rupee: Remains up amid thin trade; weak dollar supports
NEW DELHI – The rupee remained higher and traded in a narrow range against the greenback amid thin volume as major financials markets around the globe are closed today, dealers said.
Financial markets in the US, the UK, Japan, China, and Australia are closed for the observation of New Year’s Day.
“It has been range bound so far, it’s because of dollar holiday. Nothing is going on as of now,” a dealer from a foreign bank said. “There can be importer buy (of dollars) at around 82.50-82.55 (a dollar) levels.”
So far today, the local unit traded in the range of 13 paise.
A weak dollar index on Friday supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The dollar index fell after Chicago Purchasing Manager’s index showed contraction in manufacturing activity.
The dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.52 on Friday. It was at 103.83 on Thursday.
Further, gains on domestic share indices also aided the Indian currency. At 1324 IST, Sensex and Nifty 50 were both up 0.4%.
Volumes in the currency market are likely to remain muted due to holiday at major financial markets.
Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 82.90 a dollar.
The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.50-82.90 a dollar, dealers said. (Ananya Chaudhuri)
India Rupee: Slightly up as dlr dn globally on weak US econ data
MUMBAI – The rupee was slightly up against the dollar due to a broad weakness in the greenback, dealers said.
The dollar index touched a seven-month low on Friday as Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index showed a contraction in the manufacturing activity for a fourth month in a row. Chicago PMI came at 44.9 in December from 37.2 in November.
The dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.52 on Friday. It was at 103.78 on Thursday.
However, Crude oil prices which touched a 3-week high on Friday, weighed on the rupee.
Dealers said there wasn’t much buying interest so far in early trades, but around 82.55 a dollar levels some buying may emerge from importers.
Volumes in the currency market are likely to remain muted due to holiday at major financial markets.
Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 82.90 a dollar.
The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.50-82.90 a dollar, dealers said. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee – Jan 2
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee today, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
(Kabir Sharma)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Aditya Sakorkar
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