MARKET COMMENTARY
⊳ As the major overseas markets reopen today after the New Year holidays, sentiments seems to be muddled. TOCOM rubber futures are seen inching up while SHFE and AFET rubber futures declined. Concerns over supplies from the top natural rubber producing countries lend support though declining crude oil prices weighed on.
⊳ Natural rubber in the Indian market culminated the last week’s session on a positive note. Rising for the third successive week, NMCE rubber futures advanced nearly 1.5 per cent last week while in the physical market quotes for RSS4 varied near Rs.129-126 a kg. While a report of procurement by the tyre companies under the new formula is to improve the sentiments, movements in the major overseas market is likely to provide directions.
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⊳ According to Union Commerce Minister the period for the export of rubber imported under the advanced licensing system has been reduced to six months from the earlier 18 months.
⊳ According to media reports, tyre companies have procured about 2400 tonnes of rubber under the new formula implemented by the State government recently.
⊳Government of Indian have appointed a parliamentary standing committee to study rubber and tyre industry in the country.
⊳Monsoon floods seen curbing Malaysian natural rubber output and expects 2015 natural rubber production to be at 700000 tonnes.
⊳According to International Rubber Consortium, natural rubber production from Malaysia and Thailand is to drop at least 30 per cent if floods in Northern Malaysia and Southern Thailand persist.
⊳Vietnam’s rubber exports stood at 108000 tonnes in November and expect 2014 exports to be at 1.07 million metric tonnes according to country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
⊳According to Indonesian Rubber Association, natural rubber exports from the country is likely stay unchanged from the current levels at 2.5 million tonnes in 2015
⊳China to raise the cap for rubber import tariff to 1500yuan a tonne from the present 1200 yuan a tonne with effect from January 01.
⊳According to Thailand’s Office of Agricultural Economics estimates, natural rubber production from the country is expected to rise 2.6 per cent to 4.43 million tonnes as tapping area rose 5.9 per cent. TECHNICAL COMMENTRY
RUBBER Jan NMCE
With the breach of consolidation range resistance of 12850 in the previous session, positive moves are likely to continue to 12960-13100 ranges, though corrective dips to 12800-12700 ranges cannot be ruled out before such up-move. A direct fall below 12500 will see the present buying momentum waning-off.
Source: Geofin Comtrade
